Hey everyone! Data for PLIVE+ has been updated through yesterday's games! Last update was 2 weeks ago as Jordan has had some wedding festivities to attend to last week and got married on Friday. I told him not to sweat it again this week but he delivered anyway! We've got a ton of debut draftees on the board this week. You've got to bring the PA minimum down to 0 and then under "show filters" change the "Last Week Change" to be 0 and 0 to isolate them. Obviously we're dealing with uber-small PA samples here, but an interesting way to identify who has performed in the first few weeks. We'll be looking for draft standouts until the end of the season.
- Anyone looking for a PLIVE+ explainer: Check out this article
Smada
Two debut hitters of note
Could we start with anyone other than Christian Moore (LAA, AA) who has been on the heater of all heaters to begin a professional career. The "No Regression" projections through 38 PA have him hitting 71 HR at peak (LOL). The typically regressed "Career" version of PLIVE+ already has him as the 23rd best bat in the minors with a peak projection of 32 HR and a 136 wRC+. I do think we see Moore in the majors this year once we get to the point where he won't exhaust prospect status to be eligible for ROY in 2025. The exit velocities have been impressive, the power is there, even the K% has been decent, but the 14% SwStr gives slight pause before we give him any sort of crown.
Ian Petrutz (STL, A) has the most impressive non-HR fueled start from draftees. The 12th rounder out of Alabama has 40 PA with a 17.5% BB and 5% K slashing .400/.550/.533 for a 214 wRC+. He was ranked 139th in our final Top 300 MLB Draft list. Here's what the draft team had to say:
Petrutz is one of the more impressive bats in this collegiate class, displaying robust contact rates and a very mature approach at the dish. He spent two years at Maryland, but followed Rob Vaughn to Alabama after he was hired this summer. Most of Petrutz's value comes from his bat, as his defensive abilities will place him in left field long term. He really hammers heaters and had an 83% contact rate in 2023, drawing more walks than strikeouts along the way. He's an old school hitter who keeps the batting gloves in the dugout and displays good bat speed from the left side, pulling the ball with authority as a result. It could be hit-over-power when all is said and done, which is impressive given the power is average or better.
Color me intrigued in deep league contexts. No idea why he fell to the 12th round.
A couple notable hitter risers
Bryce Eldridge (SF, A+) has now been at high-A for 30 games and has been performing to the tune of 157 wRC+. The BB% has bounced back from 7% at A-ball to 17% at high-A and the K% has remained steady at 25%. PLIVE+ still has him as just the 74th best hitter but the A-ball line was average and the raw power hasn't fully actualized into game power. The current high-A line is more BABIP fueled. We obviously cut him some slack for being a 19 year old who stands at 6'7" and just started fully focusing on hitting this year.
Eric Bitonti (MIL, A) got the promotion to A-ball and has hit 5 HR in just 43 PA there as an 18 yr old. A good amount of swing and miss in the profile, but there is some insane power here from the 6'4" 3B. He's moved up to the 9th best hitter at the level between Welbyn Francisca and Josue Briceno.
An old hitter
Mickey Gasper (BOS, AAA) is not a prototypical player we highlight. He's 28 years old and has yet to have an MLB plate appearance. He gained 6.6 points over the last two weeks. Between AA and AAA this year, Gasper has a 175 wRC+ over 347 PA with a 16% BB, 11% K, and 12 HR. He's primarily a catcher but they've also gotten him time at 1B, 2B and 3B. Hitters with a 206 wRC+ at AAA over 171 PA don't typically stay there regardless of position, so he's a super deep league call-up speculation add.
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