Data has been updated through games on 4/19. The change column is reflecting movement from the last week. I'll be working on adding multiple change columns to help identify movers over different periods of time.

Today we'll look at a ton of bats! A couple Marlins hitters, some of the bigger week over week movers, all the active 18 year-old hitters, and some follow up from last week.

Typically this is a paid article but we're making it free to celebrate Easter 😃

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Marlins Risers

Two early season standouts sit in the org most likely to churn roster spots at the big league level. Both are worth keeping an eye on and added in deep leagues.

Kemp Alderman, OF MIA (Double-A)

The biggest riser at AA over the last week, Kemp Alderman is the 10th best batter when only looking at small sample 2025 data. However based on his Career PLIVE+ he's still just the 51st bat at AA.

Alderman was one of the standouts from last year's the Arizona Fall League where he hit 6 HR in just 9 games. Entering the AFL, Matt Thompson wrote this about Alderman in his Top 93 AFL hitters article where he ranked 73rd:

Alderman had big power upside when the Marlins drafted him out of Ole Miss, but he hasn't been able to find it in pro ball. He missed a majority of 2024 due to a fractured left hand and was able to make it back for 72 games outside of the complex. He hit .248/.306/.401 with 8 homers, and we just need to see more from the big man. He's a 1B/LF type so he needs to show much more offensively than he has in his small sample.

In the early season Alderman has 3 HR and shown some uncharacteristic wheels with 7 SB across 14 games. Despite showing some more patience with a lower Swing% he's not making much more contact and he's still having trouble getting the ball in the air, with a 61% GB.

Alderman was on the outskirts of our prospect ranks as Mr. Irrelevant on Drew Wheeler and Tom Gates' lists. I assume the hot start will get him more entrenched on the back end of lists in our next update (coming early May). The proximity, especially in the Marlins organization, makes him a bit more interesting at others with his current skillset.

Jakob Marsee, OF MIA (Double-A)

Jakob Marsee ranks a few spots behind Kemp Alderman in 2025-only PLIVE+. The profile is propped up by 14 SB in just 19 games, but the patient approach has led to an 18.5% BB and .405 OBP.

Marsee had a statistically standout year in 2023 mostly at High-A. The he also had an insane Arizona Fall League slash of .391/.508/.707 in 24 games. But 2024 was about league average at Double-A and he got moved from the Padres to the Marlins where he continued to be a league average bat, reaching Triple-A.

The slash line has improved since Ryan Epperson highlighted Marsee on his first edition of the The Stash List. The Z-Contact via Fangraphs has also improved against his small sample AAA numbers in 2024. I very much worry that Marsee's approach will be exposed in the Majors, but the SB potential is worth the roster spot in daily leagues. I do think he'll get a taste of the bigs this season, but given he's not on the 40-man roster it may be a bit of a wait.

Some Big Movers

Excluding the players who have made the jump from CPX to A-ball, these hitters stuck out as weekly PLIVE+ movers.

Dylan Beavers, OF BAL (Triple-A)

After a 15 HR and 31 SB season at Triple-A in 2024, Dylan Beavers is back up and running to start 2025. In his first 79 PA he's hit 2 HR with 6 SB while sporting a raised 16.5% BB and 32.9% K. However the biggest plus in the profile is a jump in Z-Contact from 78.6% last season to 89.0% in the early going. Beavers has been eyed as a prospect who could get moved, which could open up a path to playing time. PLIVE+ has him 35th among AAA bats with a peak projection of 13 HR and 21 SB per 600 PA. He's still just 23 years old and if the zone contact gains stick we could be looking at an interesting fantasy bat who debuts this season.

Ryan Nicholson, 1B LAA (High-A)

Unfortunately for our leaderboards, Ryan Nicholson shows a highest-level of Double-A due to a three game appearance there at the end of the 2024 season. He's actually at High-A to begin his age-24 season. Factor in that Nicholson was a 10th round pick last season and plays 1B, the overall interest deflates pretty quickly. However, he is rocking a 234 wRC+ through 58 PA on the back of 3 HR and a 22.4% BB and 15.5% K. It's unlikely Nicholson is long for High-A at this rate. The Angels' 1B org depth chart isn't anything to write home about behind Nolan Schanuel. You've got J.D. Davis, Niko Kavadas, Ryan Noda, Sonny DiChiara, and Sam Brown. Which means that Nicholson could quickly work his way into the conversation of a big league promotion by season's end. We'll track his progress.

Jose Colmenares, 2B NYY (High-A)

The name may sound familiar as Jose Colmenares made a bit of noise in Single-A in 2023 hitting 7 HR over 100 PA. Then Colmenares missed all of 2024 due to an injury of which I cannot find specifics. Now he is a 23 year old in High-A for the first time after missing a large chunk of time. But through 45 PA he's hit 2 HR and stolen a base. The contact has been extremely poor thus far, which could be due to the time missed, or just a reversion to his pre Single-A self. We'll circle back on him as the season goes on, but not too much to get excited over at present.

Braylin Tavera, OF BAL (Single-A)

If you've followed my hot takes on Twitter over the years you may have seen me say last preseason that I believed Braylin Tavera would be a Top 100 prospect by end of season. Unfortunately, Tavera went the complete opposite direction slashing .173/.293/.213 over 355 PA with just 1 HR in his first taste of Single-A. However, it did appear he was dealing with a shoulder injury for at least part of the year. Well now, Tavera is back in Single-A and through 45 PA has already logged 2 HR and 2 SB. On the other side of the coin, he's not taking the bat off his shoulder much and when he is, there's a lack of contact that's led to a 17% BB and 40% K. It's nice to see him pop a couple early homers but it's clear this is no where close to a bat who needs to be considered in dynasty leagues right now. I'll always follow his career given my early interest, but I'll try not to bore you with it too much moving forward.

The 18 Year Old Hitters

It's important to know who the young bucks are in full season ball to start the season. The Brewers have a trio of standouts and one 17 year-old is included.

Braylon Payne, OF MIL (Single-A)

Braylon Payne leads the way with a 168 PLIVE+ but it'll be highly volatile week to week as he's only registered 77 career PA. He's actually ranked 3rd overall in the Career PLIVE+ rankings already and projects for:

.260/.345/.437, 120 wRC+, 19 HR and 42 SB per 600 PA

Through his 12 games in Single-A he's hit 2 HR, nabbed 11 SB and walked more than he's struck out with a 20.7% BB and 19% K. The 17th overall pick in the 2024 draft is already showing over-the-fence power and patience at the plate.

Payne was our 5th ranked Brewers prospect and here is what Rhys White wrote about him in his scouting report:

This is a high-risk, high-reward demographic for the Brewers to be venturing into. If he hits enough, there is a chance 20/20 seasons with efficiency on the basepaths could be the norm, but if he doesn’t, he might follow in a Kendall George or Dillon Head-esque career path. The good thing is that with these types of speed-first players, we tend to know right away if they are good or not.

All signs point to Braylon Payne, indeed, being good.

Leo De Vries, OF SD (High-A)

You know the name already. Leo De Vries the only 18 year-old bat in High-A and a universal top prospect. His 154 PLIVE+ ranks as the 3rd best hitter in High-A by and the 19th best bat overall. The stat line has been mediocre to start the year, but the 59 wRC+ is somewhat BABIP driven. He's hit one HR and stolen one base in 11 games. One positive is the SwStr% is about the same as last season in Single-A. Let's give the kid an adjustment period, it took him two months to get going last season.

Luis Pena, INF MIL (Single-A)

You've got to pull back the PA minimum for him and a few others to appear on the list, but he's certainly made an impact over his 47 PA in Single-A thus far. Luis Pena skipped Complex ball after an amazing DSL performance last season. This year he's already stolen 10 bases over 9 games and is walking more than striking out (12.8% BB, 8.5% K).

Pena ranked 6th, right behind Braylon Payne, in our Brewers Top 20. Overall their profiles are similar. Matt Thompson gave Pean a higher hit tool (60) than Payne but a significantly worse fielding grade (45). He doesn't have much current power but Matt Thompson noted excellent contact and plate discipline in his scouting report:

Pena does a tremendous job of putting the bat on the baseball, and his strong contact skills are the foundation for what could be a valuable offensive skillset. He’s an aggressive hitter, but he also makes good swing decisions. He doesn’t walk much but also doesn’t strike out. He puts the bat on the ball and lets his plus-plus speed play.

And of course, while writing this, Pena hit his first HR of the season:

Eduardo Tait, C PHI (Single-A)

Eduardo Tait stood out in PLIVE+ last season as he reached Single-A as a 17 year-old while more than holding his own. This season his 149 PLIVE+ puts him 5th in Single-A among some other stand out hitters who are a year or two older. Tait already has 3 HR over his first 13 games while showing a much better 18.6% K than he did in his first taste of Single-A in 2024.

Tait ranked 5th in our Phillies Top 20 list and Alex Kempton gave him a 60 power grade in his scouting report. Currently a catcher, he noted:

Eduardo Tait has the potential to be an everyday MLB C with a powerful bat if he can improve his plate discipline/approach and become a more solid defensive catcher.

There is a long way to go in his development, but it's likely Tait is going to reach the big leagues at a young age. If the bat development exceeds the catching development, he could potentially be pushing for a 1B/DH spot at some point in 2027.

Jesus Made, SS MIL (Single-A)

We all know about Jesus Made at this point. His 140 PLIVE+ puts him square in the middle of the the top Single-A hitters. You've got to pull back the PA minimum to see him as he's just below with 47 PA. The early results have been solid, though his lone HR through 10 games less than maybe most were hoping for. But a 144 wRC+ with a 12.8% BB and 19.1% K is far from underperforming. Five of his eleven hits have gone for extra bases. Like Payne and Pena, Made has also been running, with 6 SB in his 10 games.

This group of Brewers hitters is simply incredible and 3 to 4 years out we could be looking at a dynamic group to compliment Jackson Chourio,

Jeremy Rodriguez, SS NYM (Single-A)

The 134 PLIVE+ ranks Jeremy Rodriguez 19th amongst Single-A hitters and 111th overall. He spent all of 2024 in the Complex league and displayed a solid 17.1% K and 8.2% SwStr at just 17 years old. This year we've seen much of the same, but with more patience with a 17.3% BB and 19.2% K in his first taste in full-season ball. He's yet to hit a HR through his first 13 games. Currently peak projections have Rodriguez hitting 16 HR and 18 SB with a 103 wRC+.

Rodriguez was our 8th ranked preseason Mets prospect and Rhys White gave him a 55 hit tool. He noted the power isn't there yet, but there is potential for it to come:

He displays a mature approach, walking 21 times in the complex league while only striking out 37 times. Rodriguez shows good swing decisions and excellent plate coverage, with a willingness to go the other way and let his speed play in a slap-and-dash style of offense. His power lags behind other aspects of his game—he doesn’t hit the ball hard yet, likely due to his current lack of strength—but he has the bat speed and barrel control to develop power as he adds muscle and potentially adopts a more lift-and-pull approach.

This seems like a great player to invest in and dream on as he's got a solid defensive profile with projectable tools.

Andrew Salas, OF MIA (Single-A)

The younger brother of Ethan Salas was signed by the Marlins in January and plugged into full season ball in April. I'm trying not to let Andrew Salas' brother's early promotion schedule and subsequent performance cloud my view of him, but it's proving difficult to separate the two in my head. This is another player where you've got to pull back the PA minimum to have him appear as he's just played in 9 games and received 38 PA. Thus far Salas is mostly just standing in the box. He's walked 10 times and struck out 11 times.

In our FYPD list he ranked 102nd, and Matt Thompson broke him down:

Salas is the younger brother of former Marlins and current Twins prospect Jose Salas and current Padres prospect Ethan Salas. Andrew Salas signed with the Marlins for $3.7 million which is the second largest bonus in the class. His defense is ahead of his offense at this point as it looks like there’s a solid chance he sticks at shortstop long term. Salas is a switch-hitter with gap to gap power, and has a keen batting eye. He’s polished for his years having spent some time playing baseball in the states already and having spent time in some Venezuelan summer leagues as well against former professional players. The lack of power and speed hurt the fantasy upside here, and on a real world prospect list he would be much more highly regarded.

Nothing about what we've seen in his first 9 games really confirms nor denies any of that report and we simply need more data to get an idea of how he'll project and rank.

Owen Carey, OF ATL (Single-A)

Now onto a player I've never heard of and we haven't written up on the site yet! Owen Carey was taken in the 15th round last year out of Londonderry High School in New Hampshire, signing for $150,000 bonus. Not 100% sure on the source but this post indicated Carey was the only high school position player drafted from New England. Carey was committed to Rutgers, per Perfect Game, but did not rank highly among their national rankings. He's a lefty hitting outfielder who comes in a 6'0", 185 lbs. Notably, Carey made the Braves' Spring Breakout roster.

Across his 54 PA, Carey has a 117 wRC+ with just a 5.6% BB, 16.7% K and 3 SB. He's played all three outfield spots and had a highlight-reel defensive play in the 3rd game of the season...

Something doesn't add up and I'm beginning to believe the Braves saw something in the cold-weather kid that other teams didn't. A 15th rounder signed away from a college commitment who impresses enough in spring to get onto the Spring Breakout roster then completely skip the complex? Carey has my attention and should have yours in leagues with 400+ prospects rostered.

Pablo Guerrero, 1B TEX (Single-A)

Pablo Guerrero got up to Single-A as a 17 year-old last year and is back to start 2025. Thus far it's been a lot more of the same with a low BB% and low 20% K. He's gotten into 3 doubles and one homer through 50 PA.

Alex Jensen had this to say about Guerrero in a Daily Sheet from last season:

Guerrero continues to post…solid…results. There are people who really like him. I see a very physically advanced player who lacks projection and also lacks the approach of his older brother or pure bat-to-ball skills of his dad. He’s also one of the worst defenders at the level and should be limited to DH…and that’s before he continues to fill out his already-too-thick frame. There’s a decent hit tool and legit pop here. I just don’t see enough to invest in a future DH only prospect and he wouldn’t be as known without his last name.

Not all that enticing despite the advanced age-to-level. We've got to see more from Guerrero before investing outside of the deepest of deep leagues.

Nathan Flewelling, C TB (Single-A)

The early results at the plate for Nathan Flewelling have been very underwhelming. He's managed just 3 hits in 36 AB and hasn't swung the bat much, walking 20.4% and striking out 26.5% of the time.

The 3rd round draftee out of Canada ranked 193rd on our FYPD list and Matt Thompson noted some legit power that we have yet to see in games. It's unclear whether the Rays thought the bat or the glove was advanced enough to skip the Complex, but I'm hoping it was the latter.

Flewelling ranks as the 91st batter by PLIVE+ at Single-A and as a catcher, we can likely fully ignore him in dynasty leagues until he shows us something more.

Some Previously Highlighted Hitters

In the PLIVE+ release article on 4/11 I highlighted some early season standouts and wanted to check in on them after getting some more data.

Will Wilson, SS CLE (Triple-A)

Here was my overarching note on Will Wilson about a week ago:

The early returns for the now 26-year old have been promising as he's hit 3 HR and slashed .389/.476/.722 across his first 10 games. He's a player to keep an eye on, but I'm leaning more towards hot streak than a changed player until we see otherwise.

Wilson has hit 3 more homers over the last 7 games and now sits at a 201 wRC+ through 75 PA. The swing and miss is still present but he's certainly not chasing as much as his previous AAA exposure. What's most notable is his 32 hard hit balls across 49 batted balls. It's clear something has changed, but I'm not sure it's enough to make him an everyday big leaguer. With Juan Brito on the 40-man and also hitting, Wilson has real competition for a next-in-line call up. Wilson is definitely worth the spec add for proximity, but I'm still not convinced he's suddenly a dude.

Ernesto Martinez Jr., 1B/DH MIL (Triple-A)

Ernesto Martinez Jr. has been a popular name thanks to a blasted HR and a hot start to the season. Here's what I said a week ago:

He does a bit of everything, the problem is that Martinez appears confined to 1B/DH and is in his age-26 season at AAA for the first time. He's stood out in the early season by walking at striking out both at a 14.6% rate while posting an insane SwStr% improvement in the small sample (4.2% from 11.1% in 2024). Typically we'd be excited about a 20 HR, 17 SB, 107 wRC+ projection, but that's tough from 1B.

The SwStr% improvement has maintained over the last week but he's still rocking a .153 ISO, more or less within career norms. If he can hold the contact gains, Martinez will make his big league debut this season, regardless of his ultimate game-power.

Jorge Burgos, OF CLE (Double-A)

Burgos has a 121 PLIVE+ making him the 258th ranked hitter. Here's my note on Jorge Burgos from last time:

He's hit 4 HR in his first 5 games of the season. The 23-year old outfielder has always shown a bit of pop, but the K% got a bit out of hand last season as he climbed up to AA for the first time. It's yet to be seen if he can maintain the early plate discipline gains over a great sample of PA.

Jorge Burgos hit another 2B, 3B, and HR over the last week and the wRC+ sits at 190 through 12 games. However, the contact rate is still extremely low making it hard to see a true breakout coming.

Austin Overn, OF BAL (High-A)

After really hyping Austin Overn as a site after his hot start he sat out multiple games and it's unclear if he was dealing with an injury. Upon returning he struck out in 6 of his next 9 PA and managed one hit across three games. With just 132 career PA under his belt, PLIVE+ is going to be move significantly week to week and his nearly 10 point drop to 117 PLIVE+ makes him the 77th ranked bat in High-A. I still encourage a long term hold on Overn.

Asbel Gonzalez, OF KC (Single-A)

The kid just keeps running. He's now up to 20 SB in just 14 games. This is going to get into Chandler Simpson territory soon. Unfortunately, Asbel Gonzalez doesn't show anywhere close to the same contact rates that Simpson showed while at Single-A despite the early season 6% K. Fortunately, Gonzalez is 19 years old and at that same age Chandler Simpson was playing in Conference USA for the UAB Blazers.

Javier Mogollon, 2B/SS CHW (Single-A)

Javier Mogollon's PLIVE+ is unchanged from the last update, here's what I said last time out:

Javier Mogollon showed a lot of pop and speed in 180 PA on the Complex but ran a ridiculously high 38.3% K. However, in his first taste of Single-A over a very small sample of 23 PA, he's shown a reduced 21.7% K while already hitting a HR and registering 2 SB. Just 19 years old, Mogollon has a long way to go, but is yet another promising prospect in a rejuvenated White Sox farm system.

We're still dealing with a small sample here, but the K% has remained reduced and he's tacked on 3 SB over the last week. PLIVE+ has Mogollon with a 21 HR, 20 SB, 98 wRC+ peak projection and is ranked as the 117th best hitter, 20th in Single-A behind Jeremy Rodriguez. Just 2% owned on Fantrax, I'd pick up before others notice the hit tool gains.