PLIVE+ is back for year two of finding breakouts & undervalued players through the most sophisticated data driven prospect projections & rankings available. The one and only Jordan Rosenblum has continued to fine tune the PLIVE+ model which should result in even more accurate peak projections and performance-only rankings.

For those who are new to PLIVE+ or just need a refresher on everything it has to offer, here's a rundown from someone who utilized it extensively last year and is responsible for pushing the data live each week (Smada).

Peak Projections

At the basis of PLIVE+ are Jordan's famous peak projections. "Peak" here is meaning at a prospect's maturity (age-wise). It does NOT mean the potential peak stats they could receive at their 100th percentile outcome. IE we will never project Elly De La Cruz to steal 70 bags or Junior Caminero to hit 50 bombs. The Peak Projections are very similar to a regular projection set you may find on Fangraphs. They look at the 50th percentile outcome of a player at their peak maturity given their career MiLB stats. This differs from traditional projections in that they project what a prospect will do in 2024, not, 2029 for example, when they are entering their prime season.

For hitters, the peak projection counting stats are per 600 plate appearances, however the PA column is the total career PA they've accumulated. Stats projected include BB%, K%, BA/OBP/SLG/OPS/ISO, wRC+, HR & SB.

Projection Type

In order to provide the greatest possible flexibility in finding and evaluating players, we have three separate set of peak projections to sift through. Here are the basics on how they are constructed the unique strengths of each:

Career

  • Utilizes an entire player's MiLB & MLB career stats to develop the projection.
  • Takes age, level, total PA, park factors, etc. into account.
  • Strengths: Most accurate projections, especially as career PA grow. Most similar to a typical top prospect list.

Single Season

  • Only uses the selected year's stats to develop the projection.
  • Takes age, level, total PA, park factors, etc. into account.
  • Strengths: Helps find the players performing early in the season. Works well if you want to remove prior years from consideration.

No Regression

  • Utilizes an entire player's MiLB & MLB career stats to develop the projection.
  • Takes age, level, park factors, etc. into account. Does NOT utilize total career PA (Reliability).
  • Strengths: Doesn't regress players with low career PA, which helps stack up the small sample performances of first time CPX and FYPD players.

PLIVE+

The metric PLIVE+ is the stat that ranks the Peak Projections in a meaningful order for fantasy purposes. It essentially combines wRC+, HR and SB from the peak projections into one all encompassing number. The most important piece of the equation being wRC+ which is the leading indicator for success at the major league level. Each "projection type" above, has different corresponding PLIVE+ numbers.

PLIVE+ is a "plus stat" meaning that it's framed around 100 being average. However, in our case a PLIVE+ of 100 is basically a replacement level prospect, or a non-prospect. There are around 550 hitters with a PLIVE+ of 100 or greater using the career peak projections.

Let's look at the top 10 players by each projection type to see the differences between each one:

Career

1. Junior Caminero (168 PLIVE+)

2. Samuel Basallo (162)

3. Jackson Holliday (162)

4. Evan Carter (156)

5. Jackson Chourio (154)

6. Coby Mayo (146)

7. Xavier Isaac (146)

8. Colt Keith (145)

9. Moises Ballesteros (144)

10. Emmanuel Rodriguez (144)

Junior Caminero has the greatest projected HR total and wRC+ while already appearing in MLB as a 20 year old. This is a player who has checked all the boxes as a premier performing prospect. A glance at his fangraphs page shows impressive performances at each stop and the age to level is only matched by Jackson Chourio.

Samuel Basallo ranking at #2 on this list is impressive and displays the aggressiveness that comes with an elite performing and elite age to level player. Reaching AA as an 18 yr old while putting up a 195 wRC+ over 115 PA at A+ will do that.

Jackson Holliday would have joined Caminero and Chourio with an MLB tag had he not played for the Orioles. He jumped up near the top of this list early last year and never left. Elite players show that they are elite players in PLIVE+.

Skipping down to Xavier Issac, he's the player with the lowest reliability (lowest career PA) in the top 10. The incredible run he went on at A+ at the end of the year as a 19 yr old was enough to conservatively project him as one of the top bats in the minor leagues.

Similar to Isaac, Moises Ballesteros is a surprise entrance to the top 10. His performances at A and A+ pushed him to a taste of AA as a 19 yr old which made him one of the most impressive age to level prospects in the minors.

Single Season

1. Heston Kjerstad (139 PLIVE+)

2. Kyle Stowers (132)

3. Conner Capel (130)

4. Jackson Holliday (127)

5. Caleb Durbin (126)

6. Evan Carter (125)

7. Jose Fermin (125)

8. David Fry (123)

9. Connor Norby (122)

10. Brett Wisely (122)

The single season PLIVE+ quickly identifies itself. It's a reflection of the best performing hitting prospects at both AAA & MLB. This list will change quickly week to week but will help you stay on top of outlier early season performances (along with reading the daily sheet). You'll notice the PLIVE+ numbers are smaller here than the group above and that's because the reliability is low based on the plate appearances the projections are using. The projections are regression the small samples down and resulting in a corresponding lower PLIVE+ totals.

Heston Kjerstad, Kyle Stowers, Jackson Holliday and Connor Norby have been the beasts of Norfolk. Connor Capel has 3 HR, 2 SB and a 234 wRC+ through his first 35 AAA PA. Similar stories can be told for the rest of the group. Again, keep an eye on this projection type early in the season and play with the age filters & sorting capabilities.

No Regression

1. Colt Emerson (201 PLIVE+)

2. Jackson Holliday (194)

3. Samuel Basallo (188)

4. Wyatt Langford (188)

5. Junior Caminero (183)

6. Lazaro Montes (181)

7. Xavier Isaac (171)

8. Evan Carter (170)

9. Jackson Chourio (168)

10. Matt Shaw (167)

When you were looking at the career top 10 you were probably wondering... where is Wyatt Langford? Given that the career projections regress each player based on their total career PA, the performances of players like Langford and Emerson and Shaw are not trusted as much until we see a larger sample. This is where the "no regression" projections become useful.

Colt Emerson has only amassed 123 PA in his career thus far but has dominated as an 18 yr old at A ball out of the gate. This ranking essentially says: continue to do this for another 500 PA or so and you'll be considered among the elite prospects.

As for Wyatt Langford, his insane run through the minors and into the majors lands him ranked among the established elite, which is where he should be considered given his traditional prospect ranking. Well, that and batting 3rd consistently for the World Champion Texas Rangers as a 22 yr old rookie with only 238 career PA under his belt.

Matt Shaw is the last standout here. His 8 HR, 13 SB and 170 wRC+ across A+ and AA last year point to an impact fantasy player. Not to mention he's already homered and stolen two bases in his first two games of 2024.

Final Thoughts

I hope this has been a helpful run through of all that PLIVE+ has to offer. We are exited to expand and offer new metrics (possible MLB likelihood) and new projections (traditional rest of season projections) soon.

I mentioned in one of the sections that filtering, sorting, etc. may be helpful, but I've got to mention that you can upload your free agent player pool to see who's available in your league, or custom lists to see how your team is performing, as well as just focusing in on players at a given level, MLB team, etc.

This is a tool I heavily rely on during the season and I'm proud that we offer it at the site. Jordan Rosenblum deserves a hearty applause for what he's developed.