I recently wrote about Kevin Alcantara in the 2025 staff bold predictions piece and...yes, I know I'm drinking my own Kool-Aid here. Alcantara is really intriguing to me right now because I get a sense there's been a dip in value. For one, he was called up to the Majors already and didn't do anything to cause excitement. Two, the Cubs' outfield is packed with players vying for spots, leaving us fantasy owners wondering where he is going to play. Three, he had a little bit of an up-and-down year last year.
June was a tough month for him as he battled an injury, limiting him to just 11 games. He also got off to a slow start in April. But through my Cubbie-blue lenses, it’s easy to overlook those rough patches and focus on what he did when he was healthy.
It's a good, not amazing profile. You like to see that above-average in-zone contact. The walk rate and strikeout rates are ok, but the O-Swing% and Whiff% are too high.
In the pro-team's scouting report of Alcantara, Matt Thompson gave him a 60 power and 60 speed. The issue with his current lack of in-game power is his 51% groundball rate. That would have put him 7th in the Majors last year for qualified hitters. Not really a leaderboard you want to appear on. I'm not sure that's an easy fix, especially at 6'6", or even something they're actively trying to change. However, it seems the 40 grade on his hit tool could improve if he continues to make consistent, quality contact in the zone.
Stolen bases are tricky because they depend so much on factors like desire, a team's philosophy, and available opportunities. Still, that 60 grade for speed raises his ceiling.
The Good
His Upside
My "bold prediction" is that Alcantara could become a top prospect by year’s end. If everything clicks—if he lifts the ball more, starts stealing more frequently, and maintains or even improves his batting average—I truly think we could see a .280, 25/25 season from him. The batting average might dip a bit as he hits the ball in the air more, but we can trade some points of average for added power. As the 2024 season went on, Alcantara did improve his batted ball profile.
Smaller sample size in Triple-A but posting this here to look at his exit velocities. A 91 mph EV would put him in the top 60 in MLB for average exit velocity. Digging through the numbers, I'd be pumped if Alcantara could turn into a Michael Harris profile. Improvements would have to be made, but some of the metrics I was looking at weren't far off.
The Bad
But not really
There’s a strong chance this is who Alcantara is: a player who primarily hits the ball on the ground and relies on his speed to get on base. Why mess with that? He could easily settle in as a .260-ish hitter with 10-15 home runs. The stolen bases are tough to project, but he’s capable of reaching 20-30. His career high in a season is 15. He’s still a solid player, and his defense should earn him plenty of playing time, but he’s not quite the top 5 prospect I was hoping for. A Jesus Sanchez type of profile. Not necessarily “bad,” but you get what I’m saying.
The Ugly
His Downside
Alcantara could continue to get blocked at the Major League level or toil around in the minors while the Cubs give Owen Cassie a chance. The groundball rate could even rise as he gets to the Majors. We'd likely see the power dip even more and with better defense at the Majors, the batting average too. The downside could be a .250ish hitter who only hits 10 home runs and is mostly entering games in the later innings to provide better defense. Brendan Rodgers profile but not playing in Coors.
Conclusion
I'll be keeping an eye on his groundball rate early in the year to see if his improvements have continued. With Triple-A having exit velocity data, we’ll have more information to analyze Alcantara. He’s not someone I’m aggressively looking to trade for right now, but if I see an opportunity or notice that his batting profile is improving, I’ll be reaching out to the owner.
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