In 2024, Kristian Campbell, Quinn Matthews, Thomas White, Zyhir Hope, Bryce Eldridge, and Jesus Made were among the prospects who skyrocketed up industry rankings with strong minor league seasons. 

From draft picks both out of high school and college, international signings, or undrafted free agents, each year, a handful of prospects make names for themselves as top organizational or MLB prospects. Sometimes, they’re popular breakout picks, and others are under-the-radar names who break out seemingly of nowhere.

When predicting prospect breakouts, a few things I look for in hitters are high upside and raw tools or profiles that can move quickly through the minors (advanced contact/OBP skills, solid approach, average power potential), as well as hitters who have made strides in improving holes in their profiles. In pitchers I look for advanced stuff for their age/level (higher velo, developed secondaries) and/or standout performers against more advanced hitters. Using these variables, here is my complete prospect lineup of 2025 breakout picks, one at each position and a full pitching prospect rotation.

Lineup

C Alfredo Duno (CIN)

2024 (A): 32 G, .267/.367/.422, 28.8 K%, 12.9 BB%

Signed out of Venezuela in 2023, Duno received one of the highest bonuses in the class at $3.1 million, but injuries have cost him development time the past two seasons. Arm soreness prevented him from playing behind the dish in the DSL in 2023, and a broken rib ended his 2024 season after just 32 games.

Already 6’2 and 210, Duno is extremely advanced physically for a 19-year-old C prospect. He has at least plus raw power potential and hits the ball hard, with the upside of a 30-HR backtop in the MLB. Duno has good strike zone recognition, but his swing can get too aggressive, and he struggled against quality offerings in 2024. He did improve his Contact% and SwStr% in 2024, and the hit tool has a chance to grade out as average once fully developed.

Duno moves well for a C of his size, with a plus arm behind the dish and good pop times, as well as the receiving skills to be an everyday backstop. He’s drawn high marks for his ability to work with pitchers, and a fully healthy 2025 could solidify him as one of the better C prospects in the minor leagues.

1B Luis Merejo (CLE)

2024 (CPX/A): 77 G, .263/.400/.439, 7 HR, 32 RBI, 24.3 K%, 14.3 BB%

Merejo was a part of the Guardians’ 2023 International Signing Class and has impressed at every assignment so far. After hitting .321/.441/.485 with a 15.3 K% and 11.3 BB% in the DSL in 2023, Merejo earned a promotion stateside in 2024, where he hit .250/.417/.421 despite being one of the youngest players in the CPX league and earned a July promotion to Single-A, hitting .282/.372/.466 in 30 games with a 24.8 K% and 9.1 BB%.

Merejo has the upside of an everyday power-hitting 1B and posted EVs up to 114 MPH with a 102.1 MPH 90th Percentile EV as an 18-year-old last season while also posting a 47.4 FB% between CPX/A in 2024. He’ll need to improve his contact rates to get there, as he made contact at a 67.4% clip in Single-A with a 16.5 SwStr%, and his approach is vulnerable to non-fastballs. His BB% regressed following his promotion to Single-A, although that can probably be attributed to facing more advanced pitching.

Merejo’s long-term defensive home is still in question as he committed 10 errors in 53 games while also getting looks in the OF corners, displaying an above-average arm albeit with a lack of range. Although he stole 11 bases in 2024, Merejo is a below-average runner and profiles best at 1B going forward. I see a bit of Ryan Clifford in Merejo’s game as a power-hitting 1B with good on-base skills and a below-average to average hit tool. Given his performance against more advanced pitchers, there is breakout appeal heading into 2025. 

2B Josh Adamczewski (MIL)

2024 (CPX/A): 41 G, .322/.459/.486, 3 HR, 27 RBI, 19.7 K%, 18.0 BB%

A 15th-round pick who the Brewers signed away from a Ball State commitment, Adamczewski left a strong impression in his first full professional season. The 19-year-old ranked in the Top 10% of ACL hitters in OBP, OPS, and K/BB ratio, earning a summer promotion to Single-A and finishing with a .322/.459/.486 slash line with a 19.7 K% and 18.0 BB% between the two stops. 

Adamczewski is a hit-over-power prospect, but there’s potential in his bat for 15 HR power. He has a smooth left-handed swing that plays to all parts of the field with quick hands and above-average bat speed. Adamczewski also significantly reduced his GB% following his promotion to Single-A (54% to 43%), and has posted Exit Velocities of 107 MPH with some physical projection remaining in his 6’0/190 frame.

Adamczewski has a near-average arm, but his glove is a work in progress, as shown by his six errors in 35 games at 2B in 2024. Adamczewski likely won’t be a huge threat on the bases, but he’s an average runner who could provide double-digit stolen bases annually. Despite his above-average hit tool, elite OBP skills, strong approach, and sneaky power, Adamczewski has flown under the industry radar and is a sleeper breakout to watch in 2025. 

SS Brandon Winokur (MIN)

2024 (A): 94 G, .249/.327/.434, 14 HR, 54 RBI, 23 SB, 28.0 K%, 8.3 BB%

A 2023 3rd round pick by the Twins, Winokur was signed away from his UCLA commitment with a nearly double slot value. After debuting in the CPX league in 2023, Winokur spent all of 2024 in Single-A, showing an improved eye at the plate and among the league leaders in SLG% and OPS in the pitcher-friendly FSL, while his Avg. Exit Velo was third-best among hitters under 21 in the league.

Winokur is extremely athletic for his size (6’5/210), with an exciting mix of raw tools and upside. He hits the ball hard with plus raw power and could develop into a 25+ HR hitter in the MLB, but he’s also prone to swings and misses and needs to improve his contact skills as shown by his 63.4 Contact% and 18.6 SwtStr%. Winokur struggles against breaking pitches and has chase-heavy tendencies, but he has the upside of a 5-tool star if everything clicks.

Winokur is a plus-runner despite his size and has clocked 70-grade run times, with the speed to be a SB threat at every level as he moves up. Defensively, his size could force a move off SS, but he has a plus arm that could also play at 3B or CF. He gives me shades of Oneil Cruz with his toolsy profile, albeit with strikeout issues, and if he continues to make strides in improving his contact rates and approach, he is poised for a breakout 2025. 

3B Sean Keys (TOR)

2024 (A): 22 G, .293/.378/.451, 1 HR, 20 RBI, 21.4 K%, 13.3 BB%

Keys burst onto 24’ draft radars with a strong sophomore season at Bucknell and followed that up in 2024 with an even better Junior season, hitting .405/.535/.798 with 13 HR, 57 RBI, 16.4 BB%, with a 12.4 BB%. He was drafted the following summer in the 4th round of the 2024 draft and made his professional debut in Single-A Dundedin

He presently has average power with above-average bat-to-ball skills and solid swing decisions, but he makes hard contact and does a good job lifting the ball with the potential to develop into a 15-18 HR hitter. Keys was in the 98th percentile or better in wOBA, wOBACON, and xwOBA with a 107.5 MPH 90th Percentile EV and 111.3 Max EV during his Junior Season at Bucknell, and draws some similarities to former Blue Jays 1B Spencer Horwitz

Keys is a below-average runner and fringe defender at 3B, but he has a chance to stick there long-term with his above-average arm, and 2B is a potential fallback option. With his combination of an average or better hit tool, power, bat-to-ball skills, approach, and on-base skills, Keys has breakout appeal heading into 2025. 

OF Thomas Sosa (BAL)

2024 (A/A+): 93 G, .230/.321/.332, 4 HR, 20 RBI, 30 SB, 29.1 K%, 11.2 BB%

Signed for $400,000 out of the Dominican Republic as part of the Orioles’ 2022 International Signing Class, Sosa didn’t generate the most buzz of the class but has the potential to be the best signing of the class with his raw tools. Sosa impressed in the CPX league in 2023 while cutting down on his strikeouts, but struggled between A/A+ in 2024.

While it might not show on paper in his full-season debut in 2024, Sosa has the tools and upside of an All-Star outfielder if everything clicks. He posted a 109.5 MPH 90th Percentile Exit Velocity, with physical projection remaining in his 6’3 frame. He needs to improve his swing decisions but made some positive strides in that department in 2024, improving his Contact%, SwStr%, and CSW%.

Defensively, Sosa’s plus arm makes him a strong fit for a corner OF slot in the long run. Although he stole 30 bases last season, he’s an average runner who could slow down as he physically develops. Sosa is far from an unfinished product, but with at least plus raw power upside and the positive contact strides he made last season, there’s a lot to like about the bat, and he has the potential to shoot up prospect rankings in 2025.

OF Andres Valor (MIA)

2024 (CPX): 54 G, .289/.374/.421, 2 HR, 28 RBI, 35 SB, 25.1 K%, 8.8 BB%

Signed out of Venezuela for $520,000 in 2023, Valor debuted that season in DSL hitting .294/.360/.466 with 5 HR, 25 RBI, and 21 SB with a 24.1 K% and 9.1 BB%. He followed that up with an equally impressive 2024 season as an 18-year-old in the CPX, hitting .289/.374/.421 with a respectable 25.1 K% and 8.8 BB% despite facing older pitchers. 

Standing 6’3/180, Valor is an athletic OF prospect with an average arm, range, and plus speed. He hits the ball hard despite his slender frame, having posted a Max Exit Velocity of 108 MPH with the remaining physical projection to develop into average or better power. Valor also showed improved contact skills in the CPX than in the DSL, with an 88.0 Z-Contact% and showing improved pitch recognition against offspeed offerings There is still elevated chase tendencies and swing and miss to his game, although he did make positive strides in that department last season, improving his Swstr%, Contact%, and Z-Contact%.

Even as he physically develops and grows into his frame, Valor projects to have the speed and athleticism to stick in CF with a corner OF spot also an option should he outgrow CF. Valor looks to start 2025 back in the CPX league with a potential promotion to Single-A in 2025 if he continues to hit, and with his potential for five average or better tools he has the upside to become the Marlins’ next big hitting prospect and someone i’ll be anticipating to skyocket up ranks in 2025. -Owen Hurd

OF Griffin Burkholder (PHI)

2024 (A): 1 G, .500/.500/1.500

The Phillies’ second-round draft pick in the 2024 MLB Draft, the Phillies gave Burkholder a signing bonus of over $1 million over-slot to deter him from his West Virgina commitment. The #2 overall prospect in Virgina and #1 OF prospect, Burkholder’s pro debut was limited to just 2 PA with a hamstring injury prematurely ending his pro debut.

Burkholder has the tools and upside to dream on in a prep hitter. He’s a physical, strong, and athletic hitter with room to grow into his 6’3 frame. His loudest tool is his double-plus speed, and he posted one of the top sprint speeds, 60-yard dash, and vertical jumps in the 24’ class. Presently, Burkholder has an average hit tool and above-average raw power, but he posted strong Exit Velocities and a good LA during summer showcases while showing plus bat speed and could be a future 20/30 hitter in the major.

Burkholder makes good swing decisions with a solid approach. Defensively, he pairs his double-plus speed with an above-average arm and can hold down CF in the long term. He’ll be 19 for most of 2025, and with his presently average or better tools across the board with upside for more, he has intriguing breakout appeal. With his double-plus speed, solid approach, and power potential, Burkholder reminds me a bit of Rays OF prospect Aidan Smith, one of my favorite prospects from the 2023 class.

UT Eduardo Beltre (MIN)

2024 (DSL): 43 G, .326/.453/.618, 11 HR, 36 RBI, 23.8 K%, 15.5 BB%

Signed for $1,497,500 out of the Dominican Republic and one of the highlights of the Twins’ 2024 International Signing Class, Beltre got a delayed start in his first professional assignment in the DSL in 2024 but hit the ground running nonetheless finishing second in the DSL in HR (11), third in SLG (.618), and third in OPS (1.071).

Standing 5’11 and weighing 175, Beltre isn’t the most presently physical prospect but has plus raw power potential with good bat speed and a compact swing while posting EVs as high as 102 MPH as a 17-year-old in the DSL. Although his hit tool is presently below average, Beltre showed better contact and pitch recognition skills than some expected in the DSL, albeit I still have some questions about how his chase-heavy approach will fare against more advanced pitchers.

Beltre is a plus runner with a plus arm who has seen reps in all three OF spots, but he needs to improve his range in CF. He has plus arm strength which could help him hold down CF, although he could be serviceable in a corner OF slot if he slows down as he physically develops. Beltre will be 18 years old for the entirety of his stateside debut and has intriguing upside and breakout appeal with his combination of raw tools and power potential. 

Rotation

LHP Keyner Benitez (MIA)

2024 (CPX/A): 16 G (13 Starts), 69.2 IP, 2.71 ERA, 3.70 FIP, 27.3 K%, 9.9 BB%

Signed out of the Dominican Republic for $225,000 in 2023, Benitez pitched to a respectable 3.74 ERA in the DSL in 2023. He quickly proved too advanced for the CPX league in 2024 with a 0.75 ERA, 1.41 FIP, 43.2 K%, and 4.5 BB% in 3 games earning a promotion to Single-A and continued to impress there as an 18 year old with a 3.12 ERA, 4.18 FIP while averaging just over a strikeout per inning with a 43.2 GB% and 15.2 SwStr%

Benitez has a slender build at 6’1/165 lbs, but he has extremely advanced stuff for an 18-year-old pitching prospect with good extension for his size. He’s hit 96 MPH with just over 15’ iVB from a low release height on his FB with room to add more velocity as he gets stronger, and he has already put on 20 LBs since turning pro. His low-mid 80s CH is a plus offering with significant fade, and generated a 53% Whiff rate and .137 AVG against in Single-A. Benitez also throws an upper-70s SL with sweeping action and good depth that also has the potential to be a plus offering as he adds strength and velocity.

The one question around Benitez is his control, as his Strike% was just over 60%, but he repeats his delivery well, and I have few questions about his stuff. I’m optimistic Benitez’s command can improve as he develops, and with his stuff, room to add more strength and velocity, and performance against more advanced hitters Benitez could be a big riser among pitching prospects this season. I believe Benitez can end 2025 as the Marlins’ second-best pitching prospect behind Thomas White, with the upside of a #2 starter. 

RHP Moisés Chace (PHI)

2024 (A+/AA): 23 G (15 Starts), 80.1 IP, 3.59 ERA, 3.44 FIP, 37.1 K%, 12.0 BB%

Signed as a part of the Orioles 2019 International signing class, the pandemic prevented Chace from making his debut until 2021 and he moved slowly through the Orioles system spending two seasons in Single-A before an impressive 2024 season led to him being traded to the Phillies at the 24’ deadline along with Seth Johnson for Gregory Soto

Chace’s double-plus FB is extremely unique and one of the best FB offerings in the minors. The pitch hits 98 MPH with 18.5’ iVB and generates a Whiff rate of 41%. His arsenal also includes a heavy-sweeping low-80s plus SL, averag CH, and above-average SW, and since joining the Phillies, he’s also worked on developing a cutter. Control has been the biggest question about Chace, but after posting a 5.19 BB/9 in A+ with Baltimore, he posted a 3.16 BB/9 following the trade between A+ and AA with the Phillies while posting a 41.3 K% between the two stops, up from 34.2% in A+ with Baltimore.

Chace has the stuff of a starter, highlighted by his elite FB, especially if he can continue to develop his CH and carry over the control gains he showed in the second half of 2024 into this season. If that does happen, which I strongly believe in, Chace has the potential to vault to the top of the Phillies’ prospect ranks following Andrew Painter’s graduation and skyrocket on Top 100 rankings. 

RHP Grant Taylor (CWS)

2024 (CPX/A): 5 G (5 Starts), 19.1 IP, 2.33 ERA, 2.12 FIP, 44.8 K%, 2.8 BB%

Taylor pitched out of the bullpen during his freshman year at LSU, showing advanced stuff, albeit with a 6.1 BB/9. He didn’t pitch in 2023 while recovering from Tommy John surgery, and despite a limited college sample size, his stuff kept him a highly regarded prospect in the 2023 draft. The White Sox drafted him in the second round and signed him for $1,659,000 

Taylor has seen limited action as a professional, pitching just 19.1 innings in 5 Games between the CPX/A in 2024 after TJ rehab kept him out of game action in 2023, but he has an ideal starter’s frame at 6’3/230 with the stuff and upside of a future #1 pitching prospect in the game. His arsenal is nothing short of elite, with a 5 pitch mix with three plus offerings and two potential above-average secondaries. His plus FB sits 93-97 MPH, and Taylor hit over 101 MPH with the pitch this spring, along with elite extension. His Upper-70s CB is also a plus offering, with elite movement hitting 2,700-2,800 RPMs and over -14” iVB as is his low-90s, 2,500+ RPM CU, which he locates the best of his arsenal. Taylor rounds out his arsenal with an above-average Upper-80s, 2,500 RPM SL, and average low-90s CH, which he uses sparingly

The White Sox plan to develop Taylor as a starter, and although durability and command are still concerns, as Taylor threw strikes at a 57.6% clip this spring, he has the stuff to cement himself as one of the top pitching prospects in the game in 2025. Now over a full season removed from TJ, Taylor should receive a longer leash in 2025. 

RHP Ryan Sloan (SEA)

2024: N/A

Viewed as one of the best prep arms in the 2024 class, Sloan was drafted in the 2nd round by the Mariners and signed for a nearly 2x slot value to forego his commitment to Wake Forest. He’s extremely polished for a prep arm with a 6’4/220 lbs frame and three-plus pitches, with no lack of projection.

Sloan’s FB sits in the mid-90s, hitting triple digits with good run and movement, hitting 2,400 RPMs, and 14-15” iVB and 10” of sweep with room to add a couple ticks of velo as he matures. His low-mid 80s SL has more Sweeper-like motion with up to 18” of HB and good spin, hitting 2,500-2,600 RPMs. Sloan’s upper-80s CH is especially lethal against LHB with up to 16’ of run, and he has a good feel for all of his offerings while showing solid control/command this spring. It’s a bit of a high-effort delivery as he’s usually around just over 5.5 Ft of extension, but he’s very advanced for a 19-year-old pitching prospect with legitimate frontline starter upside

I have little doubt about Sloan’s ability to stick as a starter, and he will likely start 2025 in the CPX league or Single-A for his first professional assignment. I strongly believe he’ll be a top-10 pitching prospect by the end of 2025, and he was the top-ranked prep arm for me in the 2024 class. 

RHP JR Ritchie (ATL)

2024 (A/A+): 12 G (11 Starts), 2.90 ERA, 4.19 FIP, 27.3 K%, 8.3 BB%

Drafted 35th overall by the Braves in 2022, Ritchie debuted that season between CPX/A with a 1.88 ERA across 5 starts (14.1 IP) with just under one strikeout per inning. His 2023 season was cut short by Tommy John surgery after just four starts, and following his return to game-action in the second half of 2024, he pitched to a 2.90 ERA, 4.19 FIP, 10.15 K/9, and 3.08 BB/9 in 12 games (49.1 IP) between CPX/A/A+.

Although his velo wasn’t back to his pre-injury levels in 24’ with his FB sitting in the low 90s compared to 94 and hitting 98 pre-injury, his FB was back to 97-98 MPH this sprting, and he threw an above-average Strike%, with a 14.5 SwStr%, encouraging signs coming off TJ. Ritchie’s SL sits at 83-85 MPH with high spin and potential to become a plus offering, and Ritchie does a good job locating the pitch for strikes. Ritchie rounds out his arsenal with an above-average mid-80s CH

Ritchie’s GB% and FB% took big steps in the wrong direction following his promotion to A+ in 2024, and he’ll likely spend most if not all of 2025 there. As he distances himself from TJ, and with the FB velo hitting pre-injury levels this spring, Ritchie has major breakout appeal this season, aided by the Braves’ strong track record of pitcher development.

Honorable Mentions: SS Yolfran Castillo (TEX), SS Yairo Padilla (STL), OF Edward Lantigua (NYM), 3B Yassel Soler (ARI), SS Angel Feliz (WSH), 2B Aroon Estrada (PHI), OF Lisbel Diaz (SF), OF Elis Cuevas (BAL), RHP Trey-Gregory Alford (LAA), RHP Didier Fuentes (ATL), RHP Juan Valera (BOS), RHP Drue Hackenburg (ATL), RHP Jackson Baumeister (TB), RHP David Sandlin (BOS), LHP Connor Preilipp (MIN), RHP Owen Hall (DET), RHP Jonah Tong (NYM)