The fantasy playoffs roll on this week, and somehow, I won all three of my tough matchups last week. My current count of playoff matchups: 2 finals, 6 semifinals, and 1 quarterfinal, with one playoff yet to start. NFL also starts this week for those who celebrate! Good luck in your own playoffs, and if you happen to have a free roster spot, I would highly encourage you to speculate on Aaron Ashby if he’s sitting out there. His stuff is back, and he is thriving in a reliever role. I would not be surprised to see him back in a rotation next year. I added many shares this past week.
*Note: all stats current through Tuesday, 9/3/24
MiLB Players I’ve added recently (210-450 prospects rostered)
- K.C. Hunt
- Johnny Severino
- Jackson Baumeister (x3)*
- Carlson Reed
- Demetrio Crisantes
- Johnny Level
- Luis Merejo
- Ty Johnson (x2)
- Wilfred Veras*
* player is highlighted below
Abimelec Ortiz 22/1B/TEX/AA
Height/weight: 5’10”/230
Bats: L
Fantrax Rostership: 17%
Top 500 Prospect Ranking (June 24): 182
My Top 300 Rank: (June 24): 175
Tools (2024): Hit: 40, Power:60, Run: 30, Field: 40
PLive+ (2024): 118
2023 stats (A/A+): 454 PA .294/.371/.619, 33 HR, 1 SB, 10.8% BB, 27.8% K
2024 stats (AA): 434 PA .233/.318/.398, 14 HR, 1 SB, 10.4% BB, 22.6% K
Why to pick up: Those listening to me on podcasts this season might roll their eyes at seeing this name. I was too high on Ortiz in the early going, as he showed significant strides in the contact department. Then, despite his struggles, I kept predicting a turnaround as he struggled. Finally, that turnaround has happened. Over his last 39 games since July 10th, Ortiz has put up a .313/.409/.544 slash (167 wRC+) with nine home runs. The power has picked up significantly, even more recently, with six home runs in his last 15 games. This uptick in power is especially nice to see, as after hitting 33 home runs last season, he managed just five through his first 67 games this year. In addition to finally showing off his power, Ortiz has continued to show significant gains with his hit tool this season. His overall contact rate is up about six percent over last season, while his strikeout rate has fallen about five points. His zone contact and chase rates are average for Double-A, and his whiff rate is above average.
Why to think twice: Ortiz is defensively limited and does not steal bases, so he will need to hit to get an opportunity. The sudden lack of power for much of the year is concerning and something to watch.
Final Thoughts: After a brutal performance for most of the season, Ortiz is finally turning things around. The profile still has significant risk, but the upside is a big-time power bat with a decent average and OBP. Buy the dip this offseason and pick him up everywhere he’s available outside the shallowest leagues.
Where to pick up: Leagues with 100+ prospects rostered
FAAB bid: Minimal (0-5%)
Jackson Baumeister 22/SP/TBR/A+
Height/weight: 6’4”/224 lbs
Throws: R
Fantrax Rostership: 5%
Top 500 Prospect Ranking (June 24): Unranked
My Top 300 Rank: (June 24): Unranked
Tools (2024): Fastball: 60, Curveball: 55, Slider: 45, Change: 45, Command:45
PLive- (2024): 92
2023 stats (N/A): DNP
2024 stats (A+): 94.2 IP, 2.57 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 31.9%K, 11.9%BB;
Why to pick up: Baumeister was the 63rd overall pick by the Orioles in the 2023 draft but was moved to the Rays in this year’s Zach Eflin. Since changing organizations, Baumeister’s control has taken a huge step forward. Since the trade, Baumeister’s walk rate has fallen from an unsightly 14% to an elite 4.6%. It's worth noting that this improvement actually started before the trade, with Baumeister posting a 6.1% walk rate over his last two starts. As impressive as the walk rate improvement has been, the strikeout rate improvement has been just as good. The trade saw Baumeister’s strikeout rate improve from a good 29.5% to an elite 40.2%. The trade also improved his ERA (3.06 to 1.13) and WHIP (1.36 to 0.63). It’s worth noting that Baumeister began his Rays career pitching shorter two-inning outings but has posted career highs with 6 and 7 innings his last two times out. Prior to that, he had only pitched five innings in his professional career once. The stuff is good with a plus low to mid-90s fastball that tops out at 97. According to @aramleighton8 on X, he’s added more ride and started mixing in a cutter since the trade. He also features an above-average curveball, slider, and changeup that appears to be taking a step forward recently. Baumeister has some projection to add, more velocity, and, of course, is in one of the best pitching development organizations in the majors.
Why to think twice: Baumeister’s Rays performance has consisted of shorter outings until recently, and the improved performance has been in a small sample.
Final Thoughts: Like Ty Johnson, who Kyle discussed in his last article, Baumeister is a pitcher who has seen massive improvement after a midseason trade to the Rays. I was intrigued before writing this up, and now I’m excited. Tyler outlined Baumeister’s mid-rotation potential in his preseason scouting report, and he seems to be on his way toward realizing that. As soon as I finish this sentence, I’ll try to add some shares, and I advise you to do the same.
Where to pick up: Leagues with 250+ prospects rostered
FAAB bid: Minimal (0-5%)
Nathan Martorella 23/1B/MIA/AA
Height/weight: 6’0”/224
Bats: L
Fantrax Rostership: 7%
Top 500 Prospect Ranking (June 24): 370
My Top 300 Rank: (June 24): Unranked
Tools (2024): Hit: 50, Power:55, Run: 30, Field: 30
PLive+ (2024): 110
2023 stats (A+/AA): 487 PA .255/.361/.437, 19 HR, 5 SB, 14.1% BB, 17.4% K
2024 stats (AA): 478 PA .227/.305/.369, 14 HR, 8 SB, 9.4% BB, 18.0% K
Why to pick up: Martorella, a 5th-round pick in the 2022 draft, has had a strange season. He got off to a hot start to the season, with a 133 wRC+ in his first 25 games with the Padres Double-A club. However, after a May trade to the Marlins, he slumped hard through most of the rest of the season, becoming one of the worst hitters in the minors during that time. In his first 64 games with his new org, Martorella slashed just .166/.232/.247, good for a 45 wRC+. However, Martorella has turned a corner in August. Since August 2nd, he’s slashed .313/.393/.606 (a 192 wRC+) with eight home runs, an 11.6% walk rate, and just a 15.2% strikeout rate. This is much more like the Martorella we saw in the early season and the one that intrigued me in his HIgh-A performance last year. When he’s at his best, Martorella combines a good approach and contact skills with above-average power. Despite his season-long struggles, he’s still managed to post an 80th-percentile BB-K rate, a 67th-percentile zone contact rate, and a 64th-percentile whiff rate. He’s also significantly lowered his ground ball rate from where it was last year.
Why to think twice: Despite his solid contact skills, Martorella chases too much. He’s not a good defender, so the bat will have to play up. Stolen bases also won’t be a big part of his game at the MLB level.
Final Thoughts: Martorella was a big faller for me this year after his post-trade performance. However, I’m starting to get back in as he continues to flash solid fantasy upside. If he keeps this up, I’d pick him off the waiver in medium-sized leagues and maybe even explore buying opportunities this offseason. The poor season-long numbers should keep the price down.
Where to pick up: Leagues with 350+ prospects rostered
FAAB bid: Minimal (0-5%)
Wilfred Veras 21/OF/CHW/AA
Height/weight: 6’2”/180
Bats: R
Fantrax Rostership: 4%
Top 500 Prospect Ranking (June 24): 451
My Top 300 Rank: (June 24): Unranked
Tools (2024): Unranked
PLive+ (2024): 128
2023 stats (A+/AA): 564 PA .286/.324/.466, 17 HR, 24 SB, 5.0% BB, 25.7% K
2024 stats (AA): 490 PA .260/.314/.424, 16 HR, 23 SB, 6.1% BB, 25.5% K
Why to pick up: Veras is an interesting power prospect with baseball bloodlines. Veras’ father and uncle played in the big leagues, and his cousin is actually Fernando Tatis Jr. While Veras has had an up-and-down season, he seems to have found a new gear in August, slashing .313/.398/.525 (171 wRC+) with five home runs and five steals in his last 25 games since August 6th. Most importantly, he has posted an 11.5% walk rate to an 18.6% strikeout rate during this span. His zone contact, strikeout, walk, and chase rates have all been trending in the right direction throughout the season. Veras, while not known for his speed, has consistently posted good stolen base numbers over the past couple of minor league seasons, providing some hope that will be part of his game at the MLB level.
Why to think twice: While things have improved lately, his season-long line and minors track record show a lousy approach. This year, his zone contact rate is in the 28th percentile, his chase rate in the 37th percentile, his walk rate in the 15th percentile, and his whiff rate in the 27th percentile. While he has stolen 20+ bags the last two seasons, his scouting reports universally peg him as a below-average runner, and if you have to wonder how much that will persist at the big league level. He’s a poor defender and will need to hit to get an opportunity. He’s also in one of the worst development organizations in the big leagues.
Final Thoughts: Veras’ recent performance creates some intrigue as it shows a sudden step forward in approach. It's a small sample, though, and I’ll need to see more of it before I can fully buy in. On the other hand, Veras is the perfect prospect to add to deeper leagues to see how he finishes the year. If he doesn’t keep it up, he’s an easy drop to make room for FYPD picks in the offseason. Just note he’s a better prospect in batting average leagues than in OBP ones.
Where to pick up: Leagues with 400+ prospects rostered
FAAB bid: Minimal (0-5%)
Leo Balcazar 20/SS,2B/CIN/A+
Height/weight: 5’11”/190
Bats: R
Fantrax Rostership: 4%
Top 500 Prospect Ranking (June 24): 461
My Top 300 Rank: (June 24): Unranked
Tools (2024): Hit: 50, Power: 40, Run: 55, Field: 50
PLive+ (2024): 128
2023 stats (A): 82 PA .324/.427/.471, 1 HR, 2 SB, 15.9% BB, 26.8% K
2024 stats (A+): 394 PA .264/.294/.357, 6 HR, 9 SB, 3.3% BB, 24.6% K
Why to pick up: Balcazar is an intriguing prospect who posted strong numbers in the DSL and complex ball in 2021 and 2022. In 2023, Balcazar appeared to have an early season breakout before tearing his ACL. Prior to his return this year, he was a sleeper prospect for me. So far, that has not been a great call, but things may be looking up as Balcazar has taken a big step forward lately. In his last 31 games since July 28th, Balcazar has slashed .323/.354/.532 with all six of his home runs and four of his nine stolen bases. After missing nearly all of last season, it may be that he’s taken a while to truly get his timing back. Even with his season-long struggles, Balcazar has posted a career-high overall contact rate of 74.1%, about 7 points higher than last season.
Why to think twice: Despite the improved contact rate, his zone contact is below average at the 30th percentile. He also chases way too much, with a 10th-percentile chase rate. Overall, it’s an incredibly aggressive approach, with Balcazar swinging at a higher rate than 84 percent of the hitters in High-A. This has led to a crazy low walk rate of 3.3% on the year, and even during this recent hot stretch, it's been worse at 3.1%. This is pretty surprising, as he has never posted a walk rate under 10% at any level. Prior to his recent hot stretch, he posted a putrid .235/.265/.271 slash without a home run in his first 67 games.
Final Thoughts: Balacazar is an intriguing prospect on a hot streak. His stock has taken a tumble over the last couple of seasons, and plenty of red flags continue to depress his value. I’m still intrigued, though, and am willing to add him in deeper leagues in the event that this is just a lost season and he finally breaks out next year.
Where to pick up: Leagues with 450+ prospects rostered
FAAB bid: Minimal (0-5%)
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