Arizona Fall League Observations Part 1

Is the Arizona Fall League the best league? Yes and no. The quality of baseball isn’t all that great, especially when it comes to arms, but the ambiance and collection of hitting talent are fantastic.

One thing for me this year that was different than years past was I was one of the speakers during Baseball HQ’s First Pitch Arizona event, and that was a fantastic experience. Huge props to Brent Hershey and Ray Murphy and company at Baseball HQ for putting on such a fantastic event. If you love baseball this is a trip for you.

As far as the players are concerned, it was great seeing plenty of players I’ve never seen before and don’t get exposed to in my part of the country, and it was also great seeing some of the players I have already seen as their 2022 season comes to an end. I’m just going to provide some (hopefully brief) thoughts on players and rank them based on how I feel about them with their respective clubs.

NOTE: If a player is omitted from this post it’s because I didn’t see them play while I was out here or didn’t hear anything notable.

ATLANTA BRAVES:

Justyn-Henry Malloy - Malloy has pretty much the same swing as he did from his days at Georgia Tech, although the body has changed drastically. He’s significantly stronger and it shows. I think his future defensive home is probably left field, although he can probably play some first base as well. I don’t see him playing any third base at the big league level. Offensively his on-base skills and his power are the loud tools here, and while I think he settles in as a 25% strikeout guy, he can still pop 25 bombs with everyday at-bats while hitting for a decent average all things considered. He’s an everyday guy.

Justyn-Henry Malloy #Braves pic.twitter.com/PqUHxPdj5O November 7, 2022

Justyn-Henry Malloy Fall Stars BP

MIAMI MARLINS:

Jose Salas - The switch-hitting infielder was the best player the Marlins sent to the AFL this year. I prefer his swing from the left side, it looks like there’s more pop there and it’s just a smoother swing. He’s grown a bit since signing but he still has excellent feet and hands that will allow him to stick at short. He’s an average to above-average middle infielder and is likely to be an everyday shortstop. It’s an above-average hit tool with below-average pop and average to slightly above-average speed. There is some risk he moves to third, but I’m not completely off of him as a shortstop yet. Joe Mack was the other Marlins prospect getting some buzz out here but it was mostly negative. He’s also a teenage catcher so I’m not putting any stock into how he’s performing in October/November after a long season.

Jose Salas #Marlins pic.twitter.com/WGRRo3SpNk November 12, 2022

Jose Salas Fall Stars BP

NEW YORK METS:

Mike Vasil - I didn’t get to see Vasil pitch while I was out in Arizona, but from the general consensus, he’s one of the guys that helped his stock the most. He was hitting 96, sitting more around 93 with the fastball. Not a very athletic delivery and more of just a backend starter, but Vasil has earned the attention he’s getting. I did like Mets reliever Josh Walker. The 27-year-old is a borderline 40-man candidate but there’s a solid chance he’s selected in the Rule Five draft by someone due to his fastball/slider relief look.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES:

Jhailyn Ortiz - My only look at Ortiz was during the AFL Home Run Derby, which comes with a huge grain of salt obviously, but his power display was easily the most impressive of anyone’s that I saw. He was hitting monster homers and they clearly miscounted a few of his bombs, but it was an overall wonderful event that they should bring back next year. His monster raw power isn’t anything new though. The strikeouts totals are rough though.

Jhailyn Ortiz put on a very impressive first round. 9 homers. All absolute no doubters #RingTheBell pic.twitter.com/ByLO2btFTl November 6, 2022

Jhailyn Ortiz derby video

Carlos De La Cruz - There are obvious flaws here but De La Cruz was impressive on both sides of the ball. He constantly hit the ball hard, including a homer that I saw. He also made a nice running catch in the right centerfield gap and another diving catch as well. He’s a monster at 6’8” and really looks good in a uniform. His long levers make him prone to strikeouts and he was chasing some breaking stuff off the plate and in, where he was getting tied up. I don’t know what the Phillies plans were with him prior to sending him out to the AFL, but since he’s Rule Five eligible they are going to have to protect him after his showing out here.

#Phillies Carlos De La Cruz with three hard hit balls today. One of my early favorites from the first game out here pic.twitter.com/cLOj1k1fVs November 3, 2022

Carlos De la Cruz Line drive

WASHINGTON NATIONALS:

Drew Millas- Millas is a switch-hitting future backup catcher that might be a plus defender behind the plate. He moves well, and also throws strikes down to second base, which was a rare feat in this league. The offense is below-average, but he can be a solid option in his controllable seasons. I didn’t get to see Robert Hassell out here and the injury (broken hamate) is a bummer. For a guy with power concerns it’s something to watch.

CHICAGO CUBS:

Matt Mervis - It’s not a hot take or anything but the power here is legit. Solidly above-average and plus to the pull-side. He did well out here, but he absolutely should have as he was one of the few prospects in this league that has already reached Triple-A. It would shock me at this point if he wasn’t the opening day first baseman for the Cubs. Owen Caissie is a guy I’m familiar with as I’ve seen him at prep showcases and in pro ball. The power is a plus tool, but there are some swing-and-miss issues. He’s vulnerable against lefties (especially soft away) and honestly will be a platoon bat if that doesn’t improve. He had some non-competitive at-bats against sliders from lefties.

Matt Mervis (@mmervis12) had 36 home runs, tied for the third most in all of the minor leagues. The man they call M*A*S*H also leads the Arizona Fall League with six home runs.

So is it any surprise that Mervis hit a homer in the Fall Stars game?#Cubs pic.twitter.com/ghUScfqwK4 November 6, 2022

CINCINNATI REDS:

Noelvi Marte - I was surprised by how big Marte is. He’s such a physical presence in the box and I don’t have any concerns about him being a middle-of-the-lineup type bat. It looks like he’s gotten deeper in his stance this year (more of a crouch) and I think that’s a positive improvement with his physical changes. Marte played third base when I saw him and it was a mixed bag. He certainly has the arm strength for the position but did have some minor accuracy issues out here. I’m not making any big conclusions from a few plays but I’d bet on a future move to left field. Matt McLain has the look of a future utility player to me, which might be a disappointing outcome for someone taken in the first round (twice) but it’s a valuable big leaguer. I’ve heard really positive things about his second base defense, but I don’t see the Reds moving India elsewhere. McLain played center a bit at UCLA and he could move around quite a bit. I don’t love him at shortstop, there’s a lot of effort required on throws from his right but the hands seem solid and he made some quick turns. He weirdly struck out looking a few times when I saw him which seems like just a weird thing. It’s a whippy swing with some pull side pop though.

Noelvi Marte #Reds pic.twitter.com/7C2O4LWNqM November 15, 2022

Noelvi Marte Fall Stars BP

MILWAUKEE BREWERS:

Jeferson Quero - Quero was the Brewers best player they sent out here, and he looks like the complete package behind the plate. He was one of the younger players in the league and performed well, especially defensively. He’s also an above-average athlete for a catcher. Really excited about his future. Zavier Warren showed some flashes but it’s a weird roster fit as a utility man that doesn’t play short. Abner Uribe has a flamethrower for a right arm, and hit 100 out here, which is routine for him. His slider was sitting 87-91, but his command wasn’t great. It’s a long arm action which may have something to do with the command issues. Ja’Von Ward hit a towering homer off of a lefty (Carson Whisenhunt) but also had some issues in the outfield. Lefty Russell Smith was sitting 88-90 with a fastball that looked straight. I do like his changeup a bit though.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES:

Nick Gonzales- Gonzales was a repeater out here in Arizona, after also attending the event in 2021. Gonzales has a very short swing and uses all fields. His natural power stroke is to right center, which explains why he’s probably not more than a 20 homer bat in the big leagues. I’m optimistic about the hit tool though. Henry Davis is shorter than his listed height by several inches. He’s compact and very strong and I don’t believe he played in the Fall Stars game despite being on the roster. I also missed Quinn Priester, which was disappointing. Saw Tahnaj Thomas throw an inning and I wasn’t feeling it. Delivery seemed rigid and he wasn’t taking advantage of his length or athleticism. He’s less interesting as a pen arm, and he was only topping out at 94. Triston McKenzie-esque build.

Nick Gonzales #Pirates pic.twitter.com/UMvPPUe0zA November 7, 2022

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS:

Jordan Walker - A legitimate middle of the lineup type bat. Large frame with huge power. Natural power to right center. Short quick swing due to strong wrists, he starts slightly open and has the bat speed to crush any fastball. Hits a lot of pull side ground balls, but when the ball travels he might be as close to Stanton type power as any prospect. His transition to the outfield appears to be going well also. He made some nice plays in right and even looked strong in center. He has a cannon for an arm as well. Masyn Winn also has a cannon and he once again put it on display while at the Fall Stars game. He misplayed a ball but still had enough on it to make the throw. One of the coolest moments the Arizona Fall League has ever seen was Jordan Walker hitting against organization mate Tink Hence. Hence during his lone inning for me was sitting 91-92 with an excellent breaking ball. I’m here for it. He doesn’t fit their traditional look as he’s not a towering 6’4” or above drop and drive type starter. Connor Thomas sits around 89-90 but was the best pitcher out here and was added to the 40-man because of his performance. Solid big league depth for this upcoming season. Ryan Loutus and Kyle Leahy both look like viable big league relievers as soon as next season. Pedro Pages has some underrated pop in the bat and is a very good defender. Bilingual catchers are also extremely valuable and he could go in the upcoming rule five draft. Mike Antico is underrated and hit a big homer. He’s got some pop and speed. Overall it was a strong showing for the Cardinals contingent out here.

Tink Hence vs Jordan Walker #STLCards on #STLCards out here in @MLBazFallLeague pic.twitter.com/2wYDvfGWmn November 7, 2022

Tink Hence vs. Jordan Walker

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS:

Justin Martinez - Martinez was one of the better arms out here, sitting 96-99 with a plus split/change. He looks like a viable relief option right now and could work his way into late inning spots before the end of the year. It’s legit. Deyvison De Los Santos was one of the youngest players out here and the power is incredible, but I’m not sure what else he will do besides the power output. Jordan Lawlar had his injury before I arrived out there, and that’s a shame. What is it with Diamondbacks hitters and their shoulders?

COLORADO ROCKIES:

Zac Veen - Veen is a fun player. He’s a dude I saw during the showcase circuit and I got to see him again last week. His frame is unique. It’s a long build with very skinny calves. It’s not a frame that looks like will add a lot of weight, and he might have just 20 homer upside as opposed to the more aggressive projections. Another thing that sticks out about Veen is how aggressive he is on the bases. You can see it in the pure stolen base attempts, but it’s more than that. This guy is looking to take the extra base in games in November, and aggressively getting his secondary leads. While he’s not a plus runner he still might be able to steal 20 or more bags regularly because of how he runs the bases. Big fan.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS:

Andy Pages - Pages can mash. He’s got loud offensive tools and a swing with tremendous torque. His pull side power might be plus-plus. The foul homers he hit to his pull side were rockets. He hits the ball very hard and makes above-average hard contact. His arm is also plus-plus and that makes him a good fit to play right field. Jose Ramos has a similar skill set to Pages, but in just a leaner and more athletic build. It’s big power and a big arm. Ramos’ hit tool isn’t as sound, as he has issues up in the zone due to his natural uppercut swing. He will have to make an adjustment there. Tanner Dodson was an exciting relief look. He hit 95 with natural cut, and he also has a high-80s slider that he was mixing in. Very nice pickup for the Dodgers. I personally didn’t see Emmet Sheehan pitch but he was blowing up hitters due to his very unique look.

Andy Pages #Dodgers pic.twitter.com/7e7QcD24tI November 7, 2022

SAN DIEGO PADRES:

Jackson Merrill - Merrill was one of the youngest players out here and quite frankly also one of the best. If you are a Patreon subscriber you know where he ranks on the data list. I only saw Merrill play once and it left me wanting more. I don’t have anything to report on him defensively, but I’m very excited about his offensive upside. Preller has done it again.

Jackson Merrill #padres pic.twitter.com/nEfSjGbFPZ November 6, 2022

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS:

Luis Matos - I saw Matos make some nice plays in centerfield, and I just recently saw that he was named the best defensive player in the Arizona Fall League. Offensively his plate appearances were over in the blink of an eye as he was hunting any fastball over the plate. His uppercut swing led to some towering fly balls also. There’s a tiny bit of Javier Baez here. The swag, the aggressiveness and the approach. Carson Whisenhunt started one of the games I saw and the 2022 draftee didn’t pitch well. His curveball has plus shape but he couldn't throw strikes with the fastball and he gave up a moon shot to Je’Von Ward.

Thanks for checking this out. Part two will be out soon.