Adam here, Jake and I have decided to bring back what was my favorite piece we did last year. As the picks come in we will be updating this with a bit of background info on the player and our fantasy thoughts as well. If you have any questions please feel free to comment below and we will get to them as they come in. Otherwise, enjoy.
1. Cleveland Guardians: Travis Bazzana - 2B - Oregon State (Prospects Live Rank: #1)
The Aussie has done nothing but hit since arriving in the United States, and there’s little reason that shouldn’t continue in pro ball. The hit tool is at least plus and there’s a surprising amount of pop in there, too, particularly to his pull side. The Guardians value hitting ability, and there’s not a prospect in this class with more of it. The match just makes sense. The defensive questions - specifically his arm - do hamper the overall profile to a degree because there’s a strong likelihood he’s going to play on the right side of the diamond. You’ll hear this statement multiple times tonight, but the bat will play wherever he winds up. Bazzana can also scoot on the basepaths, and fans should not get the impression that he’s unathletic or one-dimensional. That’s not the case; instead, his bat is just so advanced that it stands out amongst the crowd at the top of the draft. The Guardians did well here by selecting him with the first overall pick. He may be a tad atypical in this draft spot as a second baseman, but he’s going to be a big leaguer sooner than many others from this class and there’s serious offensive upside. - JK
Fantasy Thoughts: The benefit of playing fantasy baseball is you always have to field a roster that includes second basemen. Bazzana is going to rake the moment he hits the minors, and we fully expect him to quickly ascend to the big leagues. He’ll contribute plenty of base hits, double-digit home runs, and double-digit steals at his peak - and those numbers are enough to get him into the top three of this fantasy draft class. Add the level of certainty we have with his likelihood of being a good big leaguer, and you’re also talking about someone who should be considered at #1. The upside also exists for something more along the lines of .300 with 25/25 potential. It’s a pretty rare package at the keystone.
2. Cincinnati Reds - Chase Burns - RHP - Wake Forest (Prospects Live Rank: #3)
Burns is or isn’t the top arm in the class - those opinions vary depending on where you fall on Hagen Smith. What he could be, however, is a future frontline starter if he can throw enough strikes with all of his pitches. His move from Tennessee to Wake Forest saw him miss out on a College World Series title, but it did position him within the patented “Wake Forest Pitching Lab” that produced Rhett Lowder a year ago. We weren’t sure if the results would be there since he was projected as a top ten guy entering the year, but now landing at number two perhaps justifies it. The stuff is significant, and that’s why the Red popped him where they did. His fastball will eclipse 100 MPH and he’ll mix in a pair of devastating offspeed pitches, all of which generated a bunch of whiffs at the collegiate level. There may not be a ton of separation across the arsenal, but power stuff is power stuff and boy can we not emphasize the sheer power held by Burns. Let’s keep it simple: his arm is as talented as anyone in this class. The landing spot is great if the alternative was Colorado. Regardless, this is a prospect that should rank amongst the top right-handers in pro ball once he signs. The upside is immense, and the Reds have a legitimate chance of adding an Ace to their stockpile of arms. - JK
Fantasy Thoughts: A case could be made that Burns is the top prospect in this class for points leagues. Do we buy that sentiment? Well, not necessarily. Nonetheless, we do know arms are vastly important in that format and he is as good as anyone. The landing spot is great if you can look past the home ballpark, but it’s the type of stuff that transcends organizations. He may not be Paul Skenes, but he’s still immediately a top pitching prospect in the minors and what should be a sure-fire top five fantasy draft prospect in a class dominated by bats at the top.
3. Colorado Rockies - Charlie Condon - OF/3B - Georgia (Prospects Live Rank: #2)
Condon was poised to go anywhere from number one to number three depending on who you asked, and he falls to the latter. It’s a steal for the Rockies. The tall right-hander won the SEC Freshman of the Year award in 2023, the Golden Spikes Award last month, and now finds a new home park at Coors Field. What a collegiate career and what potential he has in Denver. Power is always going to be his calling card - the tall and dreamy strong man hit 62 home runs in his two years at Georgia after redshirting in 2022 - and the only real question lies in his defense. He’s played all over the field but didn’t particularly stand out in any one spot. There was some growing optimism that he could handle the hot corner leading up to the draft. We’ll see if the team’s hopes pan out. All told, his position won’t matter and he’s going to translate his God-given strength and remaining projection into elite raw power as he moves up the ladder. It’ll play anywhere. His sheer size will expose him to strikeouts, but his contact rates, exit velocities, and overall offensive tool set bode well for an explosive power hitter and realistic All-Star ceiling. Jake and Matt Thompson both surmised, albeit loosely, Condon could grow into a Richie Sexson-like profile at the next level, which puts 40 home runs annually in play at his peak. The Rockies have an opportunity to craft the young man into a franchise cornerstone regardless of his defensive home. It’s a match made in heaven if you can look past the Rockies organizational woes. - JK
Fantasy Thoughts: There may not be a hitter in this class with the same level of fantasy upside as Condon. He’s the presumptive #1 pick in most FYPD drafts, and his landing spot only validates that sentiment. He will crush plenty of home runs, and his hitting ability should be good enough to contribute in other categories. Don’t let him fall out of the top three if you’re drafting soon.
4. Oakland Athletics: Nick Kurtz - 1B - Wake Forest (Prospects Live Rank: #10)
Kurtz, like several of his peers, entered the year with hopes of being the top pick, but he instead “falls” to the Athletics at #4. It happens, especially for a first base-only prospect who struggled to begin the season, but we didn’t think he’d go this high. There are warts on the profile, but Kurtz has legitimately massive power potential. The approach is also outstanding, and he’s capable of working counts and hunting pitches to drive. His double-plus power plays to all parts of the field, and it’s not unreasonable to suggest he, like Condon, has 30- or 40-homer potential. His sheer size could work to his detriment at times, but we again can’t stress the quality of his plate discipline enough. He’s a slugger who should keep strikeouts in check, and we really just want to see him stay healthy because he battled through some injuries at Wake Forest. The hit tool itself is probably above-average but could prove better if he proves capable of working the entire zone despite his long levers. Kurtz isn’t exactly lithe, but he’s also not a zero with his speed. He moves well enough around the bag and particularly stands out for his glove work, although our draft team noted some recent inconsistencies (which we surmise could be tied to his shoulder injury). He can be an above-average defender at first base and shouldn’t need to move to designated hitter. This is a potential force of a hitter who just needs to stay in the lineup. He feels like a classic Oakland pick given the profile. - JK
Fantasy Thoughts: First base-only prospects can be a tough sell, but Kurtz could be as good as any of them. He should be a Top 10 pick for fantasy players on the backbone of his power and plate discipline, and there’s a viable chance he grows into something like a Top 5-10 hitter at the position sooner than later. Jake’s a pretty big fan, and it’s not just because he’s a #TallBoy.
5. Chicago White Sox: Hagen Smith - LHP - Arkansas (Prospects Live Rank: #6)
Smith is or isn’t the top arm in the class - those opinions vary depending on where you fall on Chase Burns. Yes, that was on purpose. Smith likely has a slightly lower ceiling than Burns, but he pitched in a tougher conference and has better command. He added some weight and that in turn included a velocity spike that includes a fastball that now touches 100 MPH. Added to the velocity, Smith’s fastball has solid ride and potentially grades as a double-plus pitch. He tunnels it well with his slider with some late bite that also grades out as double-plus. He has third pitch in the changeup that is a work in progress and a curveball that he only used roughly 2% of the time. Development of either of those two offerings seem somewhat important to his chances to start. We also can’t talk about him without mentioning the prior Tommy John surgery. His landing spot with the White Sox isn’t as devastating as Coors would have been, and we’re more ambivalent about the fit. The team should be able to give him the leash to develop, but the top two pitches are undeniable. He has a ceiling of a solid #2 and, if he can avoid a second TJ, his floor seems like a bullpen weapon. But that could be asking for a lot. Regardless, he should move quickly. - AK
Fantasy Thoughts: You will probably toss and turn at night to figure out where to draft him in points leagues. His landing spot impacts that, but arm talent is arm talent. While we don’t consider his overall profile one that is impervious to a bad organizational philosophy, we do trust that you’d be getting a good prospect. Probably in the range shortly after Rhett Lowder on a top 100? Maybe a similar range? Regardless of your risk tolerance and league format, it's an easy first-round pick.
6. Kansas City Royals: Jac Caglianone - 1B/LHP - Florida (Prospects Live Rank: #4)
Jac-tani is a unique profile for a few reasons. For one, the upside is incredible and, depending on the position and your belief in specific tools, higher than anyone else. It’s not incredibly hard to dream of a scenario where he is the top bat in the draft. Some think his double-plus raw power grade may be low. Cags has one of the quickest bats, if not the quickest, in the draft class which translates to some of the best exit velocities you’ll see. His hit tool comes with some questions, mainly a rather aggressive approach that includes expanding the zone a bit. The good news is he showed solid improvements this year, cutting the strikeouts in half and tripling the walks. On the defensive side of the ball, he can probably play right field using an obvious weapon in the arm, but his range is below-average. If he can’t cut it in the field, and he is landlocked to first base, the bat is probably still good enough. It puts a lot of pressure on the hit tool, though. The Royals are betting on the bat and may also be hoping he fits in the outfield given the presence of Vinnie Pasquantino. As a pitcher, he should likely be considered more of a second-round arm rather than a first. He is effectively wild as a starter with a plus fastball that has sinking action and can touch 99 MPH. He pairs it with solid secondaries in a changeup that grades out as above-average to plus and a quality gyro slider. The issue is his command is below-average and leads to a fair amount of reliever risk. It's the definition of a high-risk, high-reward pick. There’s an extremely wide range of outcomes here, and the Royals are absolutely betting on upside. - AK
Fantasy Thoughts: The risk v. reward is far more appealing when you get the benefit of waiting to see who drafts him. Jake likes the pairing. Adam is indifferent. The team’s willingness to let him two-way as a starter or a reliever or develop as a hitter will dictate his fantasy appeal. His development will be one of the more enticing storylines to follow leading up to your draft, but one thing is for sure, the upside is quite high, particularly with the stick. He’s an easy top ten fantasy pick for upcoming drafts.
7. St. Louis Cardinals: JJ Wetherholt - 2B/SS - West Virginia (Prospects Live Rank: #5)
A personal note here, but I (Adam) am thrilled. Is it strange that we can also call him the potential top bat in the class? Because some have that opinion. Whether we are willing to go that far is a different discussion. I am closer to that than I expect Jake is, but that has a lot to do with preferred profiles. Either way, Wetherholt has a hit tool similar to Bazzana, which is at least above-average and likely plus. He posts elite contact rates and rarely whiffs. His batted ball profile is evidence that some improvements can be made to help him tap into more power in game. He has above-average to plus power potential depending on how the Cardinals develop him. What makes him possibly the top player includes the fact that he has a better defensive package than Bazzana. His arm is good enough to play third and, depending on who you ask, he can play a serviceable shortstop. He is an above-average runner, so the range should be good enough for up-the-middle, but he likely lands as an above-average second baseman. His real weakness is his hamstring. As crude as that may be, multiple injuries to the same muscle group is cause for concern. Without the injury history, I speculate he was the easy choice for the first overall pick. Again, I’m thrilled as a Cardinals fan. - AK
Fantasy Thoughts: I mean it's a great year to pick third, unless it's a points league then fourth might be the most fun spot. The gap between the top three bats and your favorite college arm feels small and up to personal preference. This one feels like a pick where you shouldn’t overthink it. The injury risk is real, but the ceiling is up there with any college pick. His hit tool, speed, and defense all also offer a relatively safe floor. The landing spot felt almost irrelevant, but we (or I - Adam) love the fit. Jakes note he is what people think Saggese is
8. Los Angeles Angels: Christian Moore - 2B/SS - Tennessee (Prospects Live Rank: #14)
Well, this might be the first moderate surprise of the night. Adam is a huge fan of the player, and I’m actively dictating his words here, but he doesn’t believe he’s a top eight talent in the draft. There was likely a deal cut here, but we thought the same last year with Schanuel. Moore has surged up Prospect Live’s ranks over the last two months, and that’s in part because he has a swing that translates well to loft and power potential. The Angels continue to take players who will be quick movers, and people are already suggesting he’s going to be the first bat to the big leagues. Second base seems likely, per our draft team, but the combination of power and improving hit tool will profile there quite nicely. Moore is fresh off a College World Series and suddenly becomes a top ten pick. It’s been a great month for the former Volunteer. - JK
Fantasy Thoughts: Power is the best tool for fantasy purposes, but we think he can make enough contact to contribute in other categories, too. I (Jake) asked Adam where he thought Moore would land in our upcoming FYPD, and he surmised somewhere in the second round. Moore doesn’t offer the same kind of upside as the guys drafted around him, but we’re both still fans.
9. Pittsburgh Pirates: Konnor Griffin - SS/OF - Jackson Prep (HS) (Prospects Live Rank: #8)
Few players in this class have the same level of physical upside as Griffin. The prepster is a huge presence in the box and moves well enough to suggest he’ll stay in center field. There’s a rare blend of athleticism, speed, and bat speed, and it’s those qualities that got him drafted here by the Pirates. Griffin also reclassified from 2025 and became one of the younger available talents among the prep class. Power looks to be the calling card on the offensive side of the ball. The biggest concern remains his hit tool, but that’s a common complaint of prospects his age and his approach bodes well for growth. We’re not particularly concerned overall, and there was a time Adam was advocating for the Cardinals to select him. Well, that didn’t quite happen, but we’re both still big fans of the profile here, even if he doesn’t stick in center field and/or turn into Fernando Tatis. The arm strength is pretty big - he technically has two-way ability - and would be a fit for the Pirates in right field should things break that way. All told, this is one of the most talented players in the draft and a Top 100 prospect the moment he signs. - JK
Fantasy Thoughts: Griffin’s high-end raw tools match those of nearly any prospect in the draft, but the concerns with his hit tool and his general demographic have him a tier below the top group. He’s nonetheless a surefire first-round pick in fantasy drafts and is also a Top 100 dynasty prospect the moment he signs. There’s going to be power, speed, and impressive value in leagues that separate outfielders into their actual positions. The lead time will be about three years, but he looks to be a good one for Pittsburgh.
10. Washington Nationals: Seaver King – UTL - Wake Forest (Prospects Live Rank: #15)
This is not how we anticipated this shaking out for the Nationals, but after the rumors of them trying to float down JJ Wetherholt, it makes some sense that they snagged another college infielder. This is the prospect Matt Thompson said would get a General Manager fired. Apparently he also said that the Nationals GM has the safest job in the big leagues. We shall see which one shakes out. Regardless, King is a season-long riser after playing at Wingate last season. The man has an impressive line-drive approach and should continue to make a ton of contact at the next level. His upside perhaps doesn’t match the same upside of some of the bigger names left on the board, but he’s more of a surer thing and does look like a potential long-term option at shortstop. We have him listed as a utility, but Adam wanted to note that he has the best chance of staying at the six among the college guys that have come off the board so far. - JK
Fantasy Thoughts: King is poised to be a second-rounder in fantasy drafts. There’s going to be a good amount of contact, some positional flexibility, and plus speed. That amounts to a potential four category contributor and someone we like if you miss out on the more talented players on the board.
11. Detroit Tigers: Bryce Rainer - SS - Harvard-Westlake (HS) (Prospects Live Rank: #11)
Tell me if you’ve heard this before: a prep shortstop is pulling Corey Seager comps leading up to the draft. It happens every year in the same way we can anticipate Harold Reynolds dropping a 1970s Hall of Famer comp on a random third rounder. Rainer does have some of the same characteristics, though. He’s tall, from the south, and has what looks like above-average or better tools across the board. It’s an enticing package that gets him drafted here at 11 by the Tigers. The power potential stands out considering his size, projection, and amateur exit velocities, and there’s more than enough of a hit tool here (remember, above-average!) to suggest he can get to that power at the next level. The prep shortstop also has a huge arm that allowed him to pitch against high level competition, and there’s also very legitimate athleticism that will keep him on the left side of the infield. The questions of whether he’d move off shortstop have been quieted, but the package also fits at third base should he move sometime in the future. All told, Rainer has the look of a well-rounded player with easy All-Star potential. We really like the pick. Or at least Jake does. Tigers fans should, too. - JK
Fantasy Thoughts: Rainer’s upside is arguably among the top five prospects in the class, but he’s probably going to fall closer to pick #10 in fantasy drafts given the highly advanced prospects ahead of him. There’s a great combination of hit and power here, and he’s more advanced than most prospects his age. The tools are big, and his upside matches some of the Tigers picks from the past few years despite him coming off the board later than anticipated.
12. Boston Red Sox: Braden Montgomery - OF - Texas A&M (Prospects Live Rank: #7)
Braden Montgomery has a longer track record and pedigree than most. He was a highly rated two-way prospect back in 2021 but made it to campus because Stanford is a notoriously difficult school to steal commits from. After transferring to Texas A&M, the switching-hitting outfielder took off. He dropped pitching, minus two one-inning stints in February/March, and has developed into one of the premier hitting prospects of this class. His offensive profile starts with the plus power from both sides of the plate. His outstanding barrel control and much-improved approach also allow him to get to that power in game. His weaknesses lie with the hit tool. He mainly struggles against secondaries. The other worrisome part is his quality of contact is lower from the right side of the plate. His choice to continue switch-hitting or dropping will be a hotly debated topic during his development with the Red Sox. Defensively, he has a weapon in his arm, naturally as many two-way players do. He is a twitchy athlete who some believe has the ability to play center field, but he will likely stick in right field. Absent the ankle fracture, he had a greater chance to be a quick mover to the majors. However, the hit tool and his ability to hit consistently from the right side will determine the ultimate timeline. The Red Sox do very well here by adding a potential star. - AK
Fantasy Thoughts: Montgomery is a top 10 pick, likely somewhere after the arms and the top tier of bats. An argument could be made Montgomery is amongst that tier, too. The power from the left side on its own will be an asset to any fantasy roster; add to that speed and you have a potential fantasy star. Being drafted by the Red Sox doesn’t change that. How his ankle heals is important, but we anticipate him falling into the second tier or so of prospects to target. That’s still a first rounder in fantasy, as noted above.
13. San Francisco Giants: James Tibbs III - OF - Florida State (Prospects Live Rank: #12)
Tibbs has done nothing but hit since making it to Florida State, and we expect that to continue with the Giants. What did change during college was his profile, going from a slugger with whiff concerns to one of the best pure hitters in the class. This was evidenced by his strikeout rate improving over 20 points in two years. He makes solid swing decisions and understands the strike zone well. His swing is a bit uppercut and leads to his biggest wart, which is his struggles against secondaries. His improvements offer optimism he can iron this out, though. He has plenty of raw power and his barrel control allows him to get to it in game well. Defensively, he is a solid outfielder but limited to a corner. His range is fringe-average, and the overall defensive profile is average at best. He could slide to first base where the pressure on the bat grows, but that’s a move to be done later on by the Giants. He’s very clearly a bat-first prospect, and his defensive development will be important to meet the offensive threshold of a regular. We think he moves pretty quickly. - AK
Fantasy Thoughts: There’s more risk here than some are giving credit. His hit tool improvements have been nothing short of phenomenal, but he has plenty of development left. Add to that he has defensive questions, and you get a player that will have to hit. His exit velocities and ability to use all fields is a great base, but there's a number of questions that you will need to ask yourself as you make this pick. He is clearly in the third tier and, based on his landing spot, we have a strong belief he’ll hit. The profile is still more of a second round pick for fantasy purposes if you’re chasing upside. That changes if you want safety or play in a league larger than 12 teams.
14. Chicago Cubs: Cam Smith - 3B - Florida State (Prospects Live Rank: #13)
Power potential and strength are the calling cards here, which is particularly surprising given what the Cubs covet on offense. There’s big home run potential here as Smith has posted elite exit velocities with relative ease. The biggest reason he has moved up to this spot is his improvements with the hit tool. He improved in nearly every facet of his game, dropping his strikeout rate by more than double compared to the spring while still maintaining the extra base impact that he has long been known for. His defense at third base is also a strength, thanks to his natural strength. A plus arm makes up for any miscues and that ignores the fact that he moves surprisingly well. The Cubs have been linked with Smith for a while, and I (Adam again) surmised to a friend that he was their target going into the night. Let me have this. - AK
Fantasy Thoughts: It’s a pretty prototypical power-over-hit, third-base profile. His defensive floor will offer security as he develops but, if he continues to hit ,he could be a fast mover. Proximity is something we think is generally overrated but if that's something you personally value, this could be one of the picks for you. He will slot into the first part of the second round, and you could be pretty happy with that value.
15. Seattle Mariners: Jurrangelo Cijntje - SHP - Mississippi State (Prospects Live Rank: #19)
And this is where things start to get a little weird tonight. Cijntje is a very real prospect who is not a sideshow whatsoever, but all you’ll hear about over the next week or so is his ability to pitch from both sides. This is not Pat Venditte. Cijntje is a natural left-hander but the stuff is better from the right side, and our draft team thinks he’s likely to ditch switch pitching - what a statement that is as a fan of wordplay - at the next level. The stuff is pretty big. His fastball runs into the upper-90s and he mixes in two interesting offspeed pitches, too. There’s some untapped potential here, and the Mariners are among the best in the business when it comes to developing arms. We’re fans of the pick. - JK
Fantasy Thoughts: Cijntje is a unique player in a draft filled with them. He’s someone I (Jake) was originally targeting in my upcoming draft around the start of the third round, but he’s going to see a boost in value now that he lands with the Mariners. I’m not thrilled on a personal level, but I expect that to be the going rate moving forward. Good luck if you’re like me and want him to go overlooked!
16. Miami Marlins: PJ Morlando - 1B/OF - Summerville (HS) (Prospects Live Rank: #26)
One of the bigger names of the prep class coming into the year, Morlando suffered from a rough spring season. James Wood also did, as you may have heard on ESPN. He hits the ball hard and we like that, as you may have heard from Jake once or twice. The Marlins like it, too. It's a lightning quick bat that translates to those big power projections despite a unique stance. He may be due for a few setup changes. Regardless, his hit tool offers security in that he has solid to above-average bat-to-ball skills. He is also patient and shows a level of maturity in the box, taking free passes as he is given them. Defensively, it's a corner profile; whether he sticks in the dirt or has to move down to first is the real question. His athleticism, arm, and overall outfield abilities have continually improved leading to optimism he won’t be forced to first base. We think his chances are pretty good to avoid that dreaded label, and we assume the Marlins are thinking the same. - AK
Fantasy Thoughts: You want risky upside? Well, you got it here. His extreme variance and the landing spot means he can go quite high (early second?) or fall to the mid-third. Someone in your leagues will likely be very excited about him and will love his combination of upside and pedigree. We certainly love those words around here. Or, at least Jake does. Miami has been a rough development organization for hitters as of late, but PJ’s upside and risk almost mean the organization may not matter. Pick your poison for how you want to draft, but the upside demands you be aware of him as you plan your draft strategy.
17. Milwaukee Brewers: Braylon Payne, CF, Elkins (HS) (Prospects Live Rank: #55)
This will be seen as an overdraft, which is a fair criticism, but let’s judge the pick once we see what the Brewers do the rest of the draft before we jump to conclusions. He’s a Top 50ish talent because of his improving hit tool. Our draft team was really impressed by the quality of his hands and approach, and that’s going to be the selling point when projecting the tool. There’s also some power here, albeit neither of us think it’s ever going to be a standout tool for the teenager. The Brewers like toolsy outfielders who can fit into center field, and that’s essentially what Payne is at this stage of his development. There were better prospects on the board, but money (and savings) talks pretty loudly in a draft that doesn’t have much consensus past the top couple of tiers. - JK
Fantasy Thoughts: He’s probably a third rounder in fantasy leagues? We really hadn’t considered his name for the first round of tonight’s draft although plenty had. The upside seems reasonable enough, but it’s more untapped potential than anything, and that comes with a caveat that there probably isn’t a huge ceiling here.
18. Tampa Bay Rays: Theo Gillen - SS/OF - Westlake (HS) (Prospects Live Rank: #25)
Gillen checks a ton of boxes for us. He’s big, projectable, athletic, and has very legitimate tools. Tampa Bay is pretty good at snagging these guys, and there’s an argument to be made that Gillen’s hit tool is ahead of a lot of the guys they’ve popped in the past. He also has the frame and swing necessary to generate power, and we’re bullish on his offensive potential. The common sentiment is he’ll shift to the outfield, but the athleticism and arm warrant the move. We like the tools, we like the organization, and we like the pick. He’s someone who will blossom in pro ball. - JK
Fantasy Thoughts: Gillen is highly thought of, and the Rays track record of developing players only helps his fantasy stock. We’re thinking he’s a second-round pick with vertical potential should he come into pro ball and light up rookie pitchers.
19. New York Mets: Carson Benge - OF/RHP - Oklahoma State (Prospects Live Rank: #24)
Hey look, another two-way prospect. This athletic left-handed hitter (notice I said hitter) has hit and hit often since he recovered from his Tommy John surgery his freshman year. He has an explosive swing but the load and set up are a bit noisy and offer an area for the Mets to improve the profile. His advanced plate discipline and patience are more than enough to like as it stands, however. He deploys an approach geared towards going the other way, so his present average power could improve a bit more as well. Defensively, he has a weapon for an arm - shocking I know - and fits quite well in right field. As a pitcher, he has four pitches that he commands fairly well. His upside lies with his bat, and that’s where we think the Mets push him. - AK
Fantasy Thoughts: This is a safer late-second round to third round pick due to his advanced approach and in-zone contact rates. His landing spot is pretty irrelevant, however I would note that Nolan McLean is one of the few two-way players from last draft to still be two-waying. We don’t think that should change the calculus of his fantasy value, but it is a funny development storyline to follow.
20. Toronto Blue Jays: Trey Yesavage - RHP - East Carolina (Prospects Live Rank: #9)
The likely third best college arm in the class, Yesavage has always been a touch below the pair of Burns and Smith. Apparently some teams might have had him even lower. Nonetheless, he worked his way up the board and solidified his draft spot - which was later than we anticipated - through above-average command combined with three above-average pitches and a solid fourth. His 2024 campaign was extremely impressive posting an ERA a hair of 2.02 with a 40% strikeout rate. He has a fastball that touches 97 MPH with ride, a slider, and split-changeup that grade out as above-average, and a beautiful 12-6 curveball that is still developing with the promise of being fringe-average. His feel for all four pitches is what makes him a player worthy of a first round pick. He could be the fastest to the majors, or he could be a development arm with the goal of improving the stuff. Either way he is an arm that likely lands in top 100s the minute he signs. I do want to note that I don’t love the landing spot. - AK
Fantasy Thoughts: Again, the league type matters, but Yesavage is in a tier of his own when comparing him to his college arm peers. His stuff is good enough for an SP3 and his command is plenty good enough to give you confidence he remains a starter. Should his landing spot alter our outlook? Perhaps.
21. Minnesota Twins: Kaelen Culpepper, SS, Kansas State (Prospects Live Rank: #35)
Okay, Culpepper now has the best chance of sticking at shortstop from the college class that’s been drafted so far. The defensive potential is substantial. He’s an incredible athlete with range, fluid motions, and arm strength. The bat will be the question because there’s some aggressiveness in his approach, but he can still get his bat on the ball. He also runs like hell when he does. The power has improved but it’s not going to be the main driver of his offensive profile. The Twins have added a dynamic athlete and personality to the system, and it’s that kind of combination that often creates long-term big leaguers. This is a great story, and we’re fans of the pick. - JK
Fantasy Thoughts: Culpepper was seen as a borderline first round pick tonight, and he’s probably going to be a late second or third round pick depending on the nature of your league. The wheels and hitting potential are obvious, and now it’s just about developing those tools further in the minors.
22. Baltimore Orioles: Vance Honeycutt - OF - North Carolina (Prospects Live Rank: #20)
Honeycutt was viewed as a potential #1 pick coming into the year, and the reason he fell to the Orioles is simple: few trust his hit tool. However, there may not be a more explosive and tools-laden prospect in this class. He probably has four plus tools right now, although the one that matters most is not among that grouping. He’s similar to a guy like Spencer Jones, who has established himself as a Top 100 prospect despite an up-and-down season in Double-A. That’s the kind of trajectory Honeycutt is on, too, but there may be even more concerns about the hit tool than Jones at the same stage. Is it below-average or well below-average? The answer to that question will define whether the 21-year-old can become a big league regular or more of a bench bat with strong defensive opportunities. It should be noted that he’s among the best defenders in the class with Gold Glove potential. The pure upside is stupid - he could legitimately be the #1 overall prospect in baseball with average hitting ability - but our conviction that he reaches it is slim. Nonetheless, this is the kind of athlete to bet on at this stage in the draft and we commend the Orioles for taking the chance. It’s this year’s Beavers or Fabian pick. He should at least become a defensive substitution at some point in his career, but this is also the type of prospect that shuttles between Triple-A and the big leagues for six years. Jake is rooting for him as the epitome of betting on upside, and now the Orioles get to mold him into something special. - JK
Fantasy Thoughts: Honeycutt falls into the same bucket of players that Jake loves to target at the start and into the middle of the second round (James Wood and Spencer Jones are the two he’s popped since 2021). Will there be surer things on the board at that point? Probably. But upside is the name of the game and being able to land someone like Honeycutt without sacrificing a first-round pick is great value if you’re hunting for potential. Fantasy players must prepare to be either disappointed or patient. Things won’t click for Honeycutt overnight, and they may not at all. The gamble is still a good one.
23. Los Angeles Dodgers: Kellon Lindsey - SS/OF - Hardee Senior (HS) (Prospects Live Rank: #37)
Did the Dodgers strike again? There are some natural comparisons with this pick to Kendall George given the circumstances - the Dodgers don’t select again for 75 picks - and Lindsey is an athlete first. He’s a pop-up prospect who can put the ball in play with regularity and subsequently use his legs to turn and steal bases. The combination of hands and contact ability also bode well for some power potential, although that’s not what we expect his game to become. This is a hit-first, defensive-oriented prospect through and through. The Dodgers’ love for him also calls all of our analysis into question because they know more than we do. - JK
Fantasy Thoughts: Lindsey should be a third or fourth-round pick for upcoming fantasy drafts, although the Dodgers’ selection means he’ll begin to float higher. It’s a contact + speed profile that offers potential, but we’re worried about the Trae Turner comps coming out of the draft analysts tonight.
24. Atlanta Braves: Cam Caminiti - LHP - Saguaro (HS) (Prospects Live Ranking: #16)
The teenage lefty possesses multiple traits that Jake adores at this age, including present stuff, projection, and bloodlines. We’re sure that’s also what the Braves saw in him by nabbing him here at pick #24. Caminiti is young for the class (he’s almost a full year younger than William Schmidt, the top prep right-hander who conveniently pulled out about three hours ago) and already operates in the mid-90s. It’s also not out of the realm of possibility that the Braves help him find consistent upper-90s heat at full maturity. Caminiti also throws a few offspeed pitches, which helps him stand out above some of his peers. There’s no real concern about whether his repertoire will allow him to stick in the rotation. The biggest question, as is always the case with youthful pitchers, is whether he can throw enough strikes and keep the ball off the bat. Only time will answer that question, but the betting odds appear to be pretty strong here considering what the team has done with comparable arms. We’re fans of the pick and see a pretty clear mid-rotation upside. This is a great pairing. - JK
Fantasy Thoughts: High school arms are a notoriously risky investment, not just for big league clubs but also for fantasy purposes. The lead time to generating value is just so long and there’s an infinitesimal amount of things that could go wrong. Nonetheless, Caminiti is as good as any of the prep options this year, especially with Schmidt removing himself from the draft, and we anticipate his name will start being considered in the second round of many First-Year Player Drafts, Adam thinks some of your league mates will jump quicker than that. The Braves involvement only helps.
25. San Diego Padres: Kash Mayfield - LHP - Elk City (HS) (Prospects Live Rank: #23)
Mayfield is old for his prep class, but he has the size and stuff from the left side to grow into a mid-rotation starter. The package is highlighted by a mid-90s fastball that he pairs with an above-average changeup. There’s room for growth with both offerings, and he also mixes in a sweeper. We’re curious how much of an impact Schmidt’s removal from the draft altered the outcome here, but the Padres are getting a good arm. Mayfield instantly became our second best prep arm this cycle after Cam Caminiti who went the pick before. There’s always going to be a ton of risk involved with prep pitchers, but we like the Padre’s chances here of developing him. The ballpark should help, too. - JK
Fantasy Thoughts: There’s a lot of risk involved with this kind of arm, but he figures to be a very late second or third-round pick in fantasy. Teams that value upside and owners in points leagues will probably slide him up their draft board, but a prep arm is a prep arm and attrition rates are high.
26. New York Yankees: Ben Hess - RHP - Alabama (Prospects Live Rank: #63)
This should be seen as an overdraft, however he falls into the archetype of prospect that the Yankees excel in developing. There’s a pretty big fastball in his right arm - our draft team had him up to 99 MPH - and there’s also a growing belief that his curveball could become his best pitch. There’s also a firm changeup to round out the arsenal. Our take is this: he sounds a lot like Chase Hampton. From the size to the arsenal to the warts. The Yankees are among the best in the business when it comes to crafting arms, and Hess appears to be the next up. We’re also wondering, like everyone else, who they’re floating down this year. - JK
Fantasy Thoughts: It’s tough to put a value on a perceived overdraft, but we’re thinking he’s a third to fourth-round pick for Hess. Yankees fans or owners who value their development model may nudge them up their individual board, though. All told, we don’t hate the idea of taking him.
27. Philadelphia Phillies: Dante Nori - OF - Northville (HS) (Prospects Live Ranking: #142)
Well, Nori is about three months out from his 20th birthday, which makes him among the oldest among the prep class. This can also be seen as an overdraft, however, Nori certainly fits into the type of player the Phillies like to invest in. He’s a “barrel-chested” prepster with a hit tool - thank you, draft team - and someone that was largely off our radar tonight. The swing looks clean, and it looks like he can get the ball in the air, and those two qualities will help him transition into pro ball. He’s going to stay in center field based on his elite speed and overall range, and that’s likely the primary selling point on his profile. This is one of those picks where we’re giving deference to the team with the assumption that they’re cutting deals to push others down the draft board for their next picks. Time will tell. - JK
Fantasy Thoughts: Nori’s talent was closer to a second or third round pick in the MLB Draft, and that’s going to keep him off our draft radar for fantasy. Teams could gamble on him at the end of their draft depending on the depth of it, but let someone else snag Nori and go hunt for upside, if those are the two options.
28. Houston Astros: Walker Janek - C - Sam Houston State (Prospects Live Rank: #29)
Walker is the first catcher off the board because he is the best defender. A plus arm and a quick transfer means he is a good option to limit the running game. He moves well laterally and blocks well. He has also played some third base, but his value is behind the plate. Let’s be clear. The bat is behind the glove but that’s not a negative. His bat is hit-over-power but both have a chance at average grades. His power has improved, especially to the pull-side and could end up being a better tool overall when it's all said and done. Overall this is a safe pick with a higher probability than most to make it to the pros. The Astros like this type of prospect. - AK
Fantasy Thoughts: Generally speaking, catchers aren’t a sexy pick. College defense-first catchers are even less sexy. We believe this is a fourth round pick unless you feel a compelling need to draft a safe catcher. While the Astros do have a tendency to find a couple college bats and improve their batted ball profile, Adam is not certain it matters with this pick. But we get it if their development machine sways you a little.
29. Arizona Diamondbacks: Slade Caldwell - OF - Valley View (HS) (Prospects Live Rank: #30)
Short outfielders without power generally aren’t a demographic either of us are on, however Caldwell can really get the bat on the ball and run and has the look of a potential leadoff type if everything breaks right. He could also be something closer to a nine-hole hitter if there’s just not enough oomph at the plate. His biggest strengths will always be his athleticism and 70-grade speed, and there’s little question both will translate on the basepaths and in the outfield. His arm is maybe average, but he should still be capable of playing plus defense in center field given his ability to track down long fly balls in all directions. He’s a high school prospect with more floor than most considering the speed and hit tool, and the Diamondbacks pop him in the right range of the first round. We’re not enamored with the overall package, but sometimes these guys overperform and turn into long-term big league starters who make surprise All-Star appearances. Don’t think he’s Corbin Carroll, either. The hit tool and access to his fringy power will ultimately dictate his future, and the Diamondbacks probably help the chances of him maximizing his potential. - JK
Fantasy Thoughts: Caldwell can really run, which is going to give him legit stolen base potential, but we have some general concerns about whether he’s going to become an empty bat. Perhaps we’re underselling his strength and power potential. Regardless, he’s likely going to be selected in the second round of fantasy drafts. The upside isn’t quite as high as some of his prep peers drafted earlier tonight, but fantasy teams could do worse.
30. Texas Rangers: Malcolm Moore - C - Stanford (Prospects Live Rank: #18)
And Moore ends the first round. He’s the highest rated prospect remaining on our board, and that’s primarily because he offers some of the best offensive potential in the draft beyond the top tier. He can make contact, there’s very clearly above-average power, and our biggest question is whether he’s actually a catcher. The draft team thinks there’s a distinct chance he moves to first base, and we’re the type of people who trust our evaluators. The Rangers like prospects who have bat speed, and Moore falls into that bucket. Yes, there are some unique parts to his swing, but this is a Top 20 talent available ten picks later. The Rangers are doing pretty good things right now in their farm system, and Moore is set up nicely to be the next prospect to emerge. - JK
Fantasy Thoughts: We like Moore more than Janek, but this is still a catching prospect who could slide to first base and fast the stiff test of crossing the requisite offensive threshold. There will be teams who consider Moore in the second round, but we’re thinking he’s more of an early third at this stage of the summer. Others may disagree.
And that's it for us. We may choose to add or update later, but we're old and don't have the same stamina we used to. Please feel free to contact us or comment below with more thoughts, questions or concerns.
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