2022 Bowman Draft Retrospective

This off-season, I've taken a look at the three main 2022 Bowman releases. It’s more about the players and how they’re progressing in baseball within the hobby landscape, not an examination of how good or bad the product still is or can be – but that’s an easy measuring stick to summarize with. I previously reviewed 2022 Bowman and 2022 Bowman Chrome.

Bowman Draft is generally the best of the three main Bowman releases, and that is the case for 2022. At the very least, there's no arguing the depth, with 145 players with Bowman 1st's that are still active in this set. Sure, we also get way, way more pitchers in this set as always, but pitchers need love too. Right?

There were actually so many pitchers that they have three of their own sections. Instead of "Other Prospects", there's "Other Pitchers" and "Other Hitters". Then there's also the guys who's performance has been significantly impacted by recent injury. There were, uh, a lot. The reason for the third section is explained below.

I also made a new category for "40-man Contenders" – hitters and pitchers. This is because 2025 is the last year for Collegiate prospects to spend entirely in the minors before potentially being exposed to the Rule V Draft. So that means if they do well, they'll be on the precipice of a call-up one way or the other. Claiming a 40-man spot is a major obstacle for players who aren't star prospects. This checklist is loaded with guys like that, who have potential to make it to the majors and perhaps develop into something, but likely aren't stars.

Other than those, there are the usual categories I've used in previous Retrospectives. Without further ado, let's dive into this massive checklist of Bowman 1sts.

Top of the Crop

The best current player for the hobby in this set is still Jackson Holliday. Sorry haters, I know you have a justification, I know you sold last year and you told yourself you were happy with selling at that time. But if you don’t think there’s better days ahead that includes a superstar ceiling, I think you’re wrong. Start with the obvious – Holliday was only 20 years old last year. The list of 20 year old draftees (Rule 4 draft) having successful seasons in the majors in the last 10 years is a null set. Jackson Merrill debuted at 20, but turned 21 three weeks later. That’s as close as we can get. (I separate draftees from international signees because those guys have so much more professional experience by the time they’re 20). There should never have been those expectations for him to tear it up in Baltimore. When Holiday went back to AAA, all he did was post a 143 wRC+. Among players with 200 PA at the level, that was good for 13th best at the level. The full extent of his power hasn’t hit yet because his body is still maturing, but smacking 35 XBH in 73 games (nearly half his total hits) tells us it’ll be quite notable. His BB% being into the 20’s tells us that he’ll be able to get to most of that power, and that his hit tool will also be pretty darn good. There was a negative development last year though. He looks more like a 2B than a true SS moving forward because he doesn’t have great range, and he makes plenty of mistakes out there. But the hobby doesn’t care about that at all, and we shouldn’t. Ceiling, ceiling, ceiling. He has it in spades. We’ve always known that, and most of us still think it.

With a healthy and wildly successful 2024 season behind him, there’s not a lot for Noah Schultz to prove. He just has to build up stamina and pitch count. He pitched once per week, and never went beyond 70 pitches or 4 innings in any start. It just wasn’t supposed to be a season that had him knocking on the door – it was supposed to be a developmental year – and frankly, the development couldn’t have been any better for the 21 year old. He was utterly dominant and only got better as the season went on. In his 16 AA appearances he allowed an average around .200 with a 29 K%, but most impressively just a .265 SLG. My one sentence description on him overall is “a turbo-charged 6’9” finesse arm, but with an added 80-grade slider”. He looks like a guy, despite his youth and size, that will end up with at least above average command. It’s not there yet though, as sometimes he gets a four seamer too low in the zone, catches too much of the plate with his sinker, or doesn’t get good tumble on his change. But his great extension should let all of those pitches end up at average or better at the major league level in time. His slider is and always will be a deadly weapon for getting whiffs. It has an immense amount of horizontal break, and he’s shown an ability to turn it into a cutter with less depth and more velocity. It really seems Schultz is less concerned with just striking guys out, and more into being a complete pitcher. All this put together is the building blocks of an ace, friends. We’ll just have to wait until (likely) the second half of the season, at the earliest, before we see him in the majors. 

I am, for once, going to hand it to the Angels for making a great 1st Round pick. Zach Neto even fits their philosophy of being quick to the majors, as the first player from the Draft class to get there. Unlike some of their other picks, he was more than just a floor play when they took him 13th overall (though the Angels did save nearly $1 MM vs slot). After a rookie campaign with more than a few warts, he came through with a sophomore year that solidified him as the SS of the present and future. He slugged over 20 HR and swiped 30 bags, one of only four players at his position to do it last year. There’s not a lot under the hood to support him getting better with his hit tool, but what he showed was juuust fine. He’ll probably run into a few All-Star appearances if he continues as he is. Out for the short-term with a shoulder issue, what he did last year is what I expect to see, which is an above average big-leaguer in real life terms. For the hobby it’s a little less, but he’ll still continue to draw plenty of interest.

MLB-Experienced Players

In the hobby, Braves fans are loud. I think I’m going deaf with as much as they’ve been talking about Drake Baldwin. It’s for good reason (and not just because he’s their only hitting prospect with significant game power at present). He’s now made the Braves Opening Day roster because of Sean Murphy’s injury, and perhaps can earn a portion of Murphy's playing time with good performance. It will at least be an audition for later in the season. And hey, if all goes well Murphy’s contract is quite friendly and perhaps tradeable (5 yrs / 75 MM remain though). Let’s not get ahead of ourselves here though. Baldwin is not the Gold Glove caliber defender that Murphy is, and likely never will be. His ceiling as a hitter is a half-notch higher though, which makes him a viable DH option in future years. To me, his power ceiling is something like 20-25 HR, but he’s more dangerous than that. Baldwin is a complete hitter who’s adept at managing the strike zone, taking his walks, and going to the opposite field. There’s little fear of him being out of his depth at the majors – we’ll just have to be a little patient on the bottom line performance, as with all rookies. I don’t need to tell anyone how significant Baldwin is for the hobby. It’s all warranted. I’ve bumped him up to this section since he’s already been named to the MLB roster for Opening Day.

Making up for lost time after blowing out his elbow in May 2023, Kumar Rocker shook off the rust in the Complex then blasted through AA and AAA with a 44 K%. He got a cup of coffee in September, but let’s be honest here – while he could be with the Rangers out of the gate he needs a little development (he only pitched in 10 non-rehab games last year) and there has to be assurances that he’s pitching in a way that will allow him to maintain health. At least, that’s the path he should’ve been taking if the Rangers didn’t have awful injury luck with their rotation. So he now will start the year with the big club, in the rotation. If his slider isn’t top-of-the-scale I don’t know what is. It’s a straight downward breaker in the mid-80’s with 5 inches more vertical break than average. That’s a lot. Just watch the highlights. He pairs that with a high-90’s fastball with above-average arm-side run – that one plays up as a plus pitch as well because he gets excellent extension. He has a sinker for a different look of a fastball and a newly reformed curve which…we’ll see about. It’s his command that needs to tick up for him to really have ace potential, and before we begin that discussion he has to show he can stay healthy. All the same, there is and should be some intense hobby interest in Rocker – already 25, he escapes the age stereotype.

Tyler Locklear has some contradictory elements in his plate skills that keep him from truly getting to the ceiling of his plus raw power, and ironing them out at AAA will be an important benchmark before the Mariners give him a full run at 1B. The only thing standing in his way is Rowdy Tellez. For a power hitter, Locklear is great at making zone contact and is aggressive to that effect. He’s also good at not chasing in general, leading to a good number of walks. However, when he does chase, it’s almost always against breaking pitches and he’s really bad at making contact with those. That makes him a little easier to pitch to, but it’s also an element that can be corrected with experience. And he’ll need to because he’s quite slow on the basepaths and not a positive defender at 1B. If he makes it as a regular, he’ll be significant for the hobby. There’s just some work to do before he gets there. 

It’ll happen soon for Jace Jung. Just not to open 2025. Sadly, there’s too much money remaining in Javier Baez’s contract and his only value these days is in his defense. Even though Baez hasn’t played 3B in a few years, I have no doubt he’s a better defender than Jung by quite a wide margin. The Tigers also signed Gleyber Torres to play 2B, so it’s back to AAA for Jung. The most interesting thing about him by far is his power and his ability to get to it in-game. It’s only an above average asset but it plays as such thanks to a patient approach at the plate. He doesn’t chase much at all, but he does swing-and-miss quite a bit because of his uppercut mechanics. That also caused his general quality of contact to be below-average. He’s just not going to ever hit for a high average. Power? Sure, it’s a 25+ HR ceiling. But he’ll need every bit of his on-base ability to play as well to be a big league regular. All this to say, I understand why the Tigers aren’t yet ready to give him the reins anywhere. A Top 15 pick in the Draft, he’s always been hobby-relevant and deserves to be so.

The White Sox gave Jonathan Cannon a full run in their rotation starting in June, and he responded by posting solid back-end SP numbers. On the loathsome White Sox, that’s good enough for him to slot in as their #2 SP for 2025! He throws 4 pitches (sinker, sweeper, cutter, change) with frequency, and mixes in a 4-seamer for a change of pace. His change/sinker tandem is the tentpole though. Spinning in the same direction, they both have above average vertical movement with 8 MPH of velocity difference. That’s by and large why he was effective – It worked in keeping hitters off balance. He’s young enough and has a nice frame to work with (he’s 6’6”), so improvements could be coming yet that lead to more strikeouts, especially if he can get more horizontal depth to his sweeper. Hobby-wise, it’s an awful team context though. He’s going to face another year of occasionally-ugly, learning on the fly moments that the community at large won’t care much about. Watch out for tangible changes though – those could lead to the breakthrough of being a true mid-rotation starter we’re looking for.

Will Jordan Beck ever hit in the majors? It’s still a legitimate question with no answer one way or the other, despite 185 PA’s that say he can’t. See, Beck missed 2 months of the season with a broken hand. When you combine his time-to-settle (into the majors) with his in-game time-to-find-rhythm (in return from injury), it all washes out to nothing in 2024. He also proved nothing in Spring Training except showing he was healthy and that he has power that’ll play if things are going well. Things we already knew. The LF job in Colorado is his to start the year. He’s being given another shot to show that he can slug enough to forgive what’s likely to be a low OBP and high K%. If Beck goes out and hits 20 HR with a .315 OBP, they’ll probably be happy. Those aren’t numbers to get excited about in the hobby though, unless his power starts to show as much higher. He doesn’t have much dynamism elsewhere in his game, and with the Rockies being a poor card market, I’m out.

Victor Scott II and Chandler Simpson may have a friendly rivalry amongst themselves on who’s the faster runner, but they’re in vastly different places in the eyes of the hobby. The bloom is fully off Scott’s rose. While he spent significant time with the Cardinals, it was fairly disastrous – he was slashing .120/.159/.200 after his first 100 AB’s. Though it got significantly better after that, his playing time was limited and the bottom line of his season is still a sub-.200 average. More shocking, the Cardinals (e.g. Oli Marmol) kept a tight leash on his baserunning, attempting just 6 steals in 53 games. Just no need for steals from the bottom of the lineup, I guess? Scott is also a premium defensive asset, but he’s not truly usable in the majors until he figures out his offensive game. A strong spring has him as the Cardinals CF to start. I just hope the Cardinals don’t have him on a yo-yo and let him actually develop this year. 

Similar to Drake Baldwin, Max Muncy has made his team’s Opening Day roster. However, his status on the roster is more related to Zack Gelof’s broken hand, and comes with much, much less hype. I’m sure if he’s struggling, he’ll be relegated to a fringy bench role or demoted in favor of Luis Urias. That is to say, he’s a fill-in – but one with a chance to make a mark on the biggest stage. Last year Muncy contended with a hand injury of his own (and another injury earlier), so he was limited to 50 games, all at AAA. His performance was good enough to merit the strong look this spring, in which he did well. His all-around skills abut average in every aspect. The most potential is in his power though – it’s a nice 15-20 HR ceiling, which works in the hobby for middle infielders. His hit tool is a hair below that – we’re looking at a player whose plate skills looked average in AAA, so there shouldn’t be great expectations right now. It’s even fair to question whether we should expect his power to play in the majors just yet. If he does perform now though, I’d be a believer that it can continue – but hobby hype from Sacramento will remain non-existent. 

While Nacho Alvarez Jr debuted at age 21, even those voracious Braves fans didn’t go crazy with him. They know his ceiling isn’t all that high. Rather, he’s just extremely mature both at the plate and in the field. He simply does not make mistakes. This helps him much more on the defensive side of the ball where he has potential to be a positive defender at both 3B and 2B for years to come (his chops at SS I’m less sure about). At the plate he rarely swings and misses. He employs a patient approach that will easily earn a 12+ BB%, and is adept at hitting liners all across the field. There’s just not much power here though. It’s possible he touches double digits at peak, but a big ceiling in that regard is simply not who he is as a hitter. Building into more power would require a trade-off somewhere in his current approach, but as it is he'll already provide value on both sides of the ball with just a little more seasoning, I don’t think Braves fans want him that way.

You see how far down I have Brooks Lee in the section. That’s not a mistake. One reason is that there’s so much risk with his injury history, and it’s almost all back-related. That’s a pretty awful chronic one to have for anyone, but especially for an infielder whose value is tied to being able to play defense. He’s not a premium defender at SS, but he makes so many plays you don’t expect a player with his below-average foot speed to make, that his defense plays up to at least average. If that goes away, what are we left with? It’s still a player that will be in the majors; and given his pedigree of a Top 10 pick he’ll still get significant playing time to see if he can make good on that promise. He certainly doesn’t have anything left to prove in the minors after posting a .606 SLG in AAA last year. In the majors he wasn’t nearly successful, posting well below-average power metrics and unexpectedly, an issue with chase. His raw tools at the plate are not plus – at best I think one of his power or hit tools could be above average, but until he shows us…well…something, I’m comfortable being a low man on him for the hobby.

Ben Joyce was taken in the 3rd Round because of his reliever-only profile, but the Angels were a perfect fit for him in that they fast track as many of their prospects as possible, and he was essentially big league ready. He debuted in 2023 but had major control issues, eventually being shelved with ulnar neuritis. He started in AAA to begin 2024, but when he came up in June he quickly proved that command was back and his famous fastball that’s hit 105.5 MPH was going to play in the majors. He even claimed the closer role for a brief time before he was shut down in early September with a shoulder impingement. The Angels signed Kenley Jansen this offseason to be their new closer (as a stopgap?), but there’s little doubt that Joyce is a high-leverage option. Hobby-wise, there’s not much of a market for relievers, but Joyce is among the most exciting of the bunch.

On the flip side of Joyce’s excitement is Victor Mederos. He was also called up by the Angels in 2023, and also features a fastball with significant velocity. However, velocity isn’t everything, and none of his pitches are MLB-average, and haven't ever shown as such. It is a deep repertoire and he is durable though, so he’s likely to at least be deployed in a multi-inning role moving forward. He hasn’t seized anything in the majors – it’s only been 7 total games (all relief). Even in AA where he spent most of 2024 (all as a starter), neither his command or stuff were good enough. Smashing those two things together, he allowed a .854 OPS over 88 innings. Hobby-wise, the only thing I’ll be smashing in regard to Mederos going forward is the pass button.

Trey Lipscomb started 2024 up in Washington, but after two weeks was optioned to AAA. Then he was recalled after a week. Then he was optioned in mid-May. Then he was again recalled in mid-June. And on and on – he’s too young to be called just an up-and-down backup utility infielder, right? But that was definitely his usage in 2024. And based on his performance, he remains in the same bucket this year. He’s never shown enough impact to make it as a big-league regular, but he stands out for his maturity. The show wasn’t too big for him even though his performance was poor – he was a version of what he is when he’s doing well. Amed Rosario and Jose Tena are better versions of Lipscomb and figure to hold down the infield bench roles this year, so he’ll head to AAA where we’ll see if he can get to fringe-average on the offensive side.

I wrote what you’ll read below before Drew Thorpe’s Tommy John surgery was announced. His long-term future outlook is mostly the same, so I’ve left most of it. A part of not one, but two blockbuster trades, Thorpe’s name has remained on the palette of collectors for several years. But now with the White Sox, we’ll see a decline in overall relevance as he gets to work at AAA when healthy. Thorpe lacks an MLB-quality fastball, but his change-up is amazing and the same-velocity pairing with his cutter (almost) makes up for it. His slider and curve also have potential but aren’t really refined. He’s a tricky guy to project, but I think he’s likely to be a high-whiff finesse arm who shows flashes of brilliance and gets demolished in equal measure. What that means for the hobby, I don’t know.

By the time he was traded to the Marlins in the Tanner Scott deal, Adam Mazur had already shown that getting big-league hitters out was going to be a major challenge. It’s because his fastball is just too hittable – it only generated a 13 Whiff% with the Padres (8 starts). For a pitch that he threw 40% of the time, that’s not great, Bob! It’s not velocity that's his issue, it’s that his high arm slot does not pair well with his four seamer, and it plays very flat. With just average command and without a truly plus pitch in his arsenal, he’ll likely head back to the Marlins excellent pitching lab (at AAA) and try to develop his fastball. If not, there is potential for him to be converted as a slider-centric reliever, but not in a high-leverage role. 

Prospects of Significance

The Dodgers have a lot of talent, both on their major league roster and in their pipeline. I’m not telling you anything new in saying that they tend to leverage their minors talent in trades to put their MLB roster over the top. Well, Dalton Rushing runs in a world between. The Dodgers could soon have a need for him. Or he’s the headliner in a massive deal of some sort. He’s always been an offense-first catcher, but the Dodgers told us that they have a use for his bat in short order by limiting his time behind the plate once he reached AAA, and playing him mostly at 1B and LF. He’ll be back to playing all three positions and waiting in the wings in 2025. His bat is certainly ready. Rushing hit 26 HR in 2024, with very respectable K & BB numbers that maintained when he hit AAA. He’s simply a complete hitter and an offensive force at the plate. It’s not an immense ceiling, but it’s plenty high enough to be relevant for the hobby. And if he sticks with the Dodgers, oh baby will he be en vogue. I should also note here – Rushing's only autograph content in this set is base autos in the main release formats of this set, and Black & White Raywave autos in the ill-fated Lite format. So that's why you see grading of his autographs being the key differentiator in prices. I don't grade cards much, but if I had a Rushing auto that looks good, I would absolutely get it graded.

I know we’re all disappointed that Chase DeLauter got hurt again. But at least it’s not a foot injury this time? DeLauter could legitimately be an All-Star caliber OF and has performed like a player that projects as one…when healthy. It’s a huge “when”, because he simply hasn’t been for any stretch. His longest span of games of going without an injury is just 37 games – and the Guardians have to think long and hard about making him prove that he can best that number before they voluntarily give him a 40-man spot. That is to say, his current injury that he should return from in early May could cost him his debut this year. I’m going to set aside his injury and tell you about what he has done though, because it’s exceptional. At AA where he spent most of his time last year, the dude posted a 96th percentile contact rate. But he’s not just a contact hitter – there’s a fair amount of pop as well as shown by his .189 ISO. And then in his brief 6 games stint in AAA, he muscled up and slugged 6 XBH (2 HR). So yeah, his bat is so legit that I don’t care about his below average speed or defense. His injury history probably makes him a better fit for DH anyway. He’ll be knocking at the door all year – it’s just a question of how persistent that knock will be. I’m still in on him.

Don’t take what Jett Williams did last year with any weight whatsoever. He tried to play through wrist discomfort that he eventually had surgery on, then returned with strength that was clearly not fully built back up. The same holds true for his time in the AFL – he was just getting more AB’s. Williams is a small player with big power for his size. But it’s the total package that makes him more interesting than his individual tools. His maturity as a hitter is very, very notable for a player who was just 20 last season. He rarely expands the zone early in counts and is truly a pesky out. His career BB% stands at a whopping 18%, and his OBP over .400. That’s to his detriment on the strikeout side (into the 20%’s), but he’s already found a good balance. He has very clear plus speed as well and uses it to be a terror on the bases. Oh, and as I mentioned he has very clear power – it’s average, but his excellent feel for the barrel will let him hit loads of doubles and well into double digit HR with more maturity. His position is more likely to end up at 2B, but with Fransco Lindor in town for a while, that’s perfectly fine. Williams has already cut his teeth at AAA as well, so we’re looking at an end-of-the-year cup of coffee at age 21 here if all goes well. I don’t think he has the ceiling of a true hobby superstar, but in the New York market it’ll seem like it.

Cade Horton is a fantastic prospect – he’s shown himself to be every bit of the guy that was drafted 7th overall. However, he’s been a bit of a glass cannon, totaling only 122 innings since being drafted. Most recently, a shoulder strain had him shut down for the season in May 2024. His upside is legitimately an ace, but it’s fair to wonder if he needs to change the way he pitches in the name of durability. It’s not a major ding on him, but proving his health as he opens the season at AAA and tries to knock down the door to the majors is probably his biggest obstacle. His slider is a very clear plus weapon with plenty of vertical bite that gets tons of whiff when he’s healthy. His fastball has ticked back a little but it’s still in the mid-90’s with plenty of ride. His curve and change are also nice supplementary pieces of his arsenal. Smash it all together with above average command, and we see why he’s a Top 50 prospect across the board. Hobby wise his cards have taken a major tumble – take a look and tell me he’s not undervalued, especially considering he’ll likely debut in a major market this summer. Go for it now before he starts putting up a 30 K% in Iowa.

Chandler Simpson does not impact the ball at all. But somehow, we don’t care? I guess that can happen when you’re the fastest prospect in the game. The owner of 206 professional stolen bases since being drafted, it’s clearly top-of-the-scale speed. But that’s not all. Within the context of what he’s trying to do as a hitter, he’s fantastic at execution. Fantastic enough that his hit tool is now viewed as having ascended to a plus asset. He struck out in under 10% en route to hitting .355, mostly at AA. His wheels give him a great ceiling as a defender in CF as well, but that’s the one box he has left to tick – more consistency on defense. After that, I think he’ll be a full go in Tampa. The hobby is absolutely not sleeping on Simpson’s dynamism. He’s not a strong buy, but he is a very fun player. 

It’s not in doubt that Jacob Misiorowski will be an important pitcher for the Brewers, and it’ll likely be this year that he sees significant time in the majors. There’s just the question of his role, and the Crew seem to still think he can be a starter. He’s never really shown enough command for that role – he walked a whopping 60 hitters in 97 innings. He needs to make marked improvements to even get to the Blake Snell level of command. But his stuff is amazing. He has not one, but two pitches that could be double-plus. His fastball really isn’t fair to deal with. He’s 6’7” and gets excellent extension, but also throws from a low arm slot. That leaves him able to throw riding fastballs that start well into the RH batter’s box…and the velocity? Only up to 100 MPH. But that’s not all. He has a pitch in the mid-90’s that blurs the line between cutter and slider because it has so much horizontal movement. When he needs some vertical depth, he drops in a sweeping curve that moves so much he has difficulty locating it, but the odds are the hitter will be enticed to swing anyway. He’ll start the year in AAA as a starter, but as soon as there’s a need I think he’ll be with the Brewers in whatever role they need. In any case, highlights will follow and his hobby relevance will always be buoyed by that.

There’s a lot going for Cole Young hobby-wise. A prep draftee, he played all of 2024 at AA – only Jackson Holliday can make a more advanced claim. He only struck out 16% of the time compared to a 12 BB%, a sign his plus hit tool was playing at the level. He even made advancements on the defensive side and now projects as a viable SS at the major league level. There’s no more fear that he’s 2B-only. The one thing he didn’t show was fringy power. It was squarely below average, but he has both his youth for the level and wrist discomfort that he played through to blame for that. Fringy power is the expectation with Young, and if he shows that 12-16 HR and his hit tool progresses as expected, he should settle into being a lower-tier star. He’s already being groomed for a role in the second half this year as a UTIL, perhaps right around the time he turns 22 in late July, should he be performing to expectation. I like him a lot for Mariners fans, but I’m not as sure that he’ll be great for the hobby at large.

Tommy Edman, Chris Taylor, Enrique Hernandez, and Mookie Betts moving back to the OF. That’s what stands in the way of Alex Freeland making it to the Dodgers roster. That is to say, it’ll be a tough task for him in 2024 – those are valuable players, each in their own right. It’s more likely that the Dodgers use him as trade bait, in which case his card market will likely feel a bit inflated. Not that he's too expensive now – he enjoyed a breakout campaign in 2024 that put him on the map as a real-life Top 100 prospect. His skills are tied to being able to play SS well, so he’s a hair under that hobby-wise (because we care less about position-specific things). His impact at the plate projects as average or better in every aspect – optimistically he could be a 20 HR bat with a high OBP. He has only average speed but he’s great at choosing when to run – there’s definite 20+ SB potential as well. He’s also knocking at the door with 39 games of AAA experience as well. He’s simply highly desirable – he’ll be a major piece in whatever trade he’s involved in.

Thomas Harrington doesn’t have the same high ceiling as his org-mates such as Bubba Chandler, but has every bit of a shot to be a rotation mainstay. That is to say, it’s very likely to happen. With Harrington it’s not pure stuff that gets it done, but rather great command and a fantastic feel for pitching. He might not have a single pitch in his arsenal that grades as plus, but he has as many as five that flash with above average potential, and he’s equally comfortable with all of them. That’s the quintessential definition of a mid-rotation arm. I think it’s possible as he matures further there will be a higher K% than the 25 he pitched to last year, but that’s not entirely important to him. Even without autos in this product, he’s not being slept on. There’s plenty of hype in the prospecting community for the guy. 

40-Man Contenders – Hitters

Jimmy Crooks had a fantastic 2024 season – no doubt about that. He put up a laser show – a 32 LD% with a .321/.410/.498 slash at AA en route to winning Texas League MVP. However, I’m in the camp that he needs to do it again to say he has that type of offensive ceiling. The high LD rate feels like an anomaly and it did a lot of the heavy lifting in that stat line. I think he will hit enough, but if he makes All-Star teams it won’t be because of offensive value. Rather, his defense is a plus asset that makes his future in the majors a near certainty – likely as a starting catcher. He’s still improving in his blocking and receiving (likely why he didn’t see AAA) but he easily projects as above average in those aspects. His arm is one to fear. Only 76 attempts were made on him in 83 games of today's run-happy MiLB, and he threw out a very solid 33% of them. Sure, he’s in the camp of “more valuable in real life than the hobby”. But he’s an important part of the Cardinals future, so he definitely has significance.

He’s a bit trickier to assess because his bottom-line performance isn’t eye-popping, but Dylan Beavers has a future as a big-league regular. He’s good at a lot of things, but not fantastic at any. He’s above average at not chasing, and good at putting bat to ball when he does. He’s above average at zone contact, and takes enough pitches to earn double-digit BB%. His power is such that he should hit 15-20 HR at peak. His speed is such that he should swipe 25-30 bases at peak. Beavers deferred a lot of his time in CF to Jud Fabian, but he also has the speed and ability to play there. Is all of this just reading as “a little boring”? Or did I just write it that way so I can buy more? He’s essentially a lock to reach the majors by 2026, whether it’s in Baltimore or a trade brings him elsewhere. He might take a few years to settle in, but he has a shot at becoming an occasional All-Star. Think of him as an OF-only Matt Vierling with speed.

Another prospect with a solid-but-imperfect power/speed combo, Jacob Melton is an important part of the Astros’ future. He’s on the aggressive side as a hitter and tends not to work counts deep. That’s hurt his hit tool and his performance in terms of batting average and OBP quite a bit, but he’s all about getting to his above average power. That, he’s been successful at, at least against righties (if you’ve ever seen his autograph, you know he’s definitely left-handed). He’s also a very aggressive baserunner, and his above average speed plays up due to his strong acumen. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him swipe 30+ bags multiple times. He’s also a very strong defensive OF, but his arm is merely average so LF and maybe some CF is his long-term home. Melton is likely to begin his career in the majors as a platoon bat until he starts to hit for some power against righties. But he’s close. Real close. Jake Meyers could only dream of having his offensive upside, and the Jose Altuve LF-experiment is only going to last so long. One last thing to note is that he was a base-only subject in this release, with autographs in 2023 Bowman Chrome.

Of all things, Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever has derailed Gavin Cross’ ascent. However, he got back to putting up a solid-enough line in AA that we can project him to be a significant piece of the Royals’ future now. That disease sapped his strength for the entire 2023 season, and his stamina and strength wasn’t even quite 100% in 2024. So I think we should take what he did in 2024 as a shade of who will be. What I think is sticky is that he’ll be a mid-20’s K% type with strong platoon splits. I think the SLG will tick up to at least the high .400’s and he’ll get to around 25 HR as a ceiling. That’ll play in the hobby, even if he's only filling that strong side of a platoon. As a former Top 10 pick who hasn’t truly fallen off, his hobby status is still buoyed by the hope of a high ceiling. It’s still there – but I think 2025 is probably the last year where the hobby at large will care if he starts proving it. Beyond that, if he eases into a big-league role it won’t be something we care a lot about.

If Chase Meidroth had any pop whatsoever you’d say he’s passive to a fault with his 0th percentile AAA Swing%, but he also ran a 99th percentile contact rate both inside the zone and out, and had a league-leading .437 OBP. I think being passive and working the pitcher is just who he is, and it hasn’t cost him a thing in terms of strikeouts. However, he doesn’t really hit the ball with much impact at all. Less than a quarter of his hits went for extra bases – that’s punch-and-judy territory. If he had good speed that’d still make him a great leadoff hitter-type, but his is below average. Now on the White Sox that makes him…still their future leadoff hitter. The only question that remains…and this is a big one because you don’t want your regular DH with a sub-.400 SLG…is position. He’s spent time at all three infield positions but isn’t particularly strong at any. I don’t know where that fits in with the White Sox exactly, but he’s already likely to provide more offensive value than most of their current lineup, and there’s no reason to keep him in the minors for long. Hobby-wise he kinda is what he is. He might make an all-star game or two if it all pans out, but he has very little star potential.

When discussing Drew Gilbert, we have to consider his hamstring as a factor behind everything – his limited playing time, his poor performance, what he looks like to start in 2025, and even the suppression of his high-energy personality on the field. He’s acknowledged that it’s still not 100%, and he’s learning how to play with the hamstring being ‘good enough’ for game action. I think that hurts his projectability as a CF, and the straight line speed he has. He still projects as a major leaguer – there’s no doubt of that, and in 2023 he showed that AA was no problem. He has what it takes to go and attack AAA this year and do well. But how mercurial is he? Will he be able to play 90-100 games this year? Will his balky hamstring continue to affect his swing? I want to see some positive answers to these questions before I call him a potential big-league starter. He has the raw talent in spades, but if what he showed in 2024 is ‘the new Drew’, he’s more of a fringe bat. There will continue to be sizable hobby interest especially as a Met, but he’s quite risky.

Any thought of Jakob Marsee having a future plus hit tool went out the window with his 2024 season. I’m not crazy! Some were saying that after he won the 2023 AFL MVP with a .391/.509/.707 slash! There was a very rude awakening though when he went to AA and hit well under the Mendoza line for a month. He was then flipped to the Marlins in the Luis Arraez trade and continued to really not hit much until he failed upward to AAA. Surprisingly, the brief returns on that promotion were positive, but the reality has set in. At best he’s a high-OBP center fielder with above average speed and defense. That’s still an everyday player! However, I think being mostly vacant of power like he was in 2024 is his reality. That really dings him a lot from where he was at his hobby ceiling. Now being a Marlin bumps him down further, and the bad taste of his 2024 season is still fresh.

Another new Marlin, Nathan Martorella projects as a bench bat with some strong side platoon upside. Now, that’s rooted in his hit tool progressing enough to let his average power play to it’s potential, as he needs it as a 1B/LF-type. He did well from July 1 forward to realize that potential, hitting 15 HR in that span. He controls the zone very well – probably his best overall attribute as a hitter. However, he frequently does not make contact with great quality and paired with below-average speed, results in a low BABIP. He was more aggressive after being moved to the Marlins, and I wonder if his offensive profile gets a half notch better if he’s able to tick back into a 10-12 BB%. It’s also worth noting that every single one of his HR (and all but 2 XBH) in 2024 came against a righty – the platoon possibility is very real. He’s not an exciting profile, but he’s a likely big-leaguer in some capacity and has 20+ HR upside. That leaves him with a sliver of hobby intrigue.

There’s almost no pop with Josh Kasevich, but he was up to the task of handling the upper minors for the first time in 2024, posting a solid average for the entire year. Impressively, he also struck out in under 12% of his plate appearances. He’s too aggressive (coupled with lack of impact) to peg his hit as a plus at this juncture, but there’s a good chance he matures into it. With an ability to play SS and other infield positions, there’s little doubt he reaches the majors, and perhaps even growing into a starting role. He’s not a great hobby name by any stretch though. There’s just no dynamism to his game. 

Popping 20 HR isn’t easy no matter what level you’re at, and Jud Fabian has now done it twice, last year in the high minors. However, there are caveats with his performance. Fabian swings and misses…a lot. His power is squarely above average in-game which provides some deodorant, but he has no consistency in his quality of contact – he ran a .289 BABIP. Especially for a player with plus speed like Fabian has, it’s a telling sign that the high percentage of fly balls he’s hitting (50%) perhaps isn’t his best path forward. Still, he’s very close to the majors in most other organizations. Being an above average defender with an above average arm and an ability to play CF, with his power, is something teams will always value. His call-up just probably won’t happen with the Orioles this year. I would think he’s trade bait around the deadline this year, provided he can cut down on the 40+ K% he showed in his taste of AAA. If he stays around 30% for his career, it’ll be a long one – just probably a bit frustrating with quite a bit of time as a 4th OF. 

A catcher with a MiLB career .380 OBP? Great, when does he debut? But wait, there’s a bit of an issue if that’s what we’re calling Dominic Keegan. He’s a Ray. The Rays value defense quite austerely. Keegan has never been a strong backstop – he gets by on a bunch of “good enough” back there, which really isn’t enough to be an everyday catcher for the Rays. He saw roughly a third of his time at DH & 1B as well in 2024, pointing to the club knowing he needs to provide value while not playing catcher. But I think he can do just that. If he can continue to be average in hit and power with an ability to play a little catcher, there’s a path to significant big league playing time. However, he will already be 25 before the end of the season. The Rays are also very unlikely to give him a shot this year. That would make him, in the eyes of the hobby, a late blooming average major leaguer – not great.

All Gabriel Rincones Jr needs to do to reach the majors is continue on the path he’s been on. It’s one that has him using every bit of his above-average acumen for pitch selection combined with an average hit and average power. As he’s bereft of much speed and strictly an OF corner, he likely has the ceiling of a 4th OF. Now, 4th OF’s end up getting 400 plate appearances sometimes. That'd be a significant role player with a ceiling of 15-20 HR someday. Furthermore, in the Philadelphia market he has hobby value – which he should. There’s just a fine line between that and being a Quad-A type. His 2025 season will hopefully see him better define which side of that line he falls on.

Are you not entertained! Ivan Melendez embodies that mantra, showing some massive homers coming from a massive frame that’s earned a lot of hobby love. However, I’ve personally have always been a lot lower on him, and he’s done exactly what I expected thus far. He’s not strong defensively and is a plodder on the basepaths, but I’m not worried about him profiling as 1B-only if it comes to that because like I said, he’s got plenty of power. What I’m most concerned about is his swing-and-miss. His below average zone contact numbers are fine – that’s largely expected form a power hitter. What concerns me more is propensity to chase. In total, he swung at pitches outside of the zone 7.4% more than average (13th percentile), and on those pitches his contact rate was under 50%. In layman’s terms – if you throw him breaking pitches outside the zone, he’s a pretty easy out. Melendez has never had a K% under 30%, but again his power makes that palatable, if only he can improve his chase numbers. There’s still some potential, and if it happens he’ll definitely be a strong hobby name.

Can we stop pretending Kevin Parada is a catcher yet? Because the Mets haven’t – he hasn’t played anywhere else except catcher and DH as a pro. He’s truly a negative defender behind the dish and has proven it at every stop, which is a worst case scenario considering the Mets drafted him with such high draft capital (11th overall). His offensive production was also not very good in 2024, a regression of .088 off his SLG and .031 off his ISO in total. And power is what we’re really here for. For a guy with a fringy-at-best hit tool that includes a ton of swing-and-miss, he’s going to need to show above average power. That just hasn’t happened yet at AA. Parada is a player with a declining profile across the board. I would sell right now while you still can (and you can). He’s at risk of not ever reaching the majors.

I’m sure Jack Brannigan would’ve seen AA in 2024 if his season wasn’t interrupted by two separate IL stints, so I won’t knock him as much as I would have, considering he’s 24 and hasn’t touched the high minors. Brannigan doesn’t have any above-average tools, but is also potentially fringe-average or better everywhere, including an ability to play multiple infield positions. His power is definitely an asset that could prove viable in an MLB role of some sort. Granted, again, he was 23 in High-A, but hitting 18 HR in 77 games while contending with the recovery from those injuries is impressive. It’s his hit tool that’s the most questionable, but it’s mostly rooted in passivity and not being able to recover all that well from poor counts. Being a hair more aggressive is something I’d be interested in seeing. Anyhow, hobby-wise he’s not likely to be relevant because even if his power doesn’t decline in AA, he still has so far to go, and if all goes well we’re looking at a age-25 debut with a bench/util role. 

The lower K% that Cayden Wallace has posted since turning pro doesn’t tell a complete story – he makes a bunch of contact because he’s just really aggressive at the plate, and both his hit and power play down because of it. The thing is with Wallace, as a bulkier 3B prospect, he needs his power to play to every bit of its average potential to make it as a big league regular. But because that’s his path and I think eventually he’ll figure that out, I’m fine with endorsing him as a risky dart throw with some hobby significance. Now, his 2024 is just a season to forget. An oblique injury, then a related rude introduction to a new organization had him out of sorts all year. That change in approach hopefully starts this year. If it does he’ll definitely be worthy of a Nationals’ 40-man spot this offseason.

Joe Lampe has enough speed and contact skills to reach the majors, but will need a little more impact to hit a Michael Siani-esque ceiling. Wait…there's a voice in my earpiece telling me that we don’t love Michael Siani in the hobby. Obviously, the same is true for Lampe. He was at AA for all of 2024 where he did run a sub-20 K%, but also under 30 XBH in 105 games. As it is, his ceiling is a second-division 4th OF, but he’s in a system with a lot of players similar to him so there’s not much hope for a call-up anytime soon. Assuming the season goes as organically projected, I see him as trade bait this coming season as a supplementary piece – somebody will take a flyer on having to put him on a 40-man this offseason. 

Ryan Ritter’s bat was never supposed to be a strong suit, but he went out and smacked 24 HR in 2023 – impressive, regardless of it being at lower levels. Alas, that type of performance did not continue at AA in 2024, but his SLG was still over .400. That’s a mark that’s still good, assuming his arm and glove at SS are playing up to above-average expectations. But they’re not. His arm is still at least average, but he’s made a lot of mistakes at SS (despite the highlights) and probably now projects as an MLB utility infielder. That’s still a good get for the Rockies in the 4th Round! Through the hobby lens Ritter is worse. As a Rockie we’re only interested in a prospect if they have no-doubt power or a well-defined path to a starting role. Ritter falls short of that.

There’s never been any hobby appeal with Tanner Schobel and there shouldn’t be, but he has a better chance than most down in the cockles of this section to reach the majors. He was drafted for his floor – he’s never been a high upside player. The Twins have deployed him in a utility role, and in 2024 it was in AA where he played 5 positions. Surprisingly, despite being pigeon-holed as a 2B at draft time it was mostly 3B and SS. There was enough impact in his bat to project as an end-of-the-bench type, but overall quality of contact will need to improve a bit to force the Twins hand – first for a 40-man spot at the end of this season, and after that we’ll see what he looks like. 

Other Hitters

We’re starting to get an idea of the type of hitter Termarr Johnson should end up being with maturity, and it’s one that will reach the majors. He’s not there yet though. He works counts deep in hopes to see a pitch he can launch 400+ feet in every at-bat. That affects his quality of contact in general, but he’s also disciplined enough to take the walks that come in turn. He also has so much raw power that it’s not a terrible approach for him. He just needs to be a little more flexible, a little more willing to punch the ball into the opposite field on occasion. Then he’d absolutely be a lock to be a big-league 2B. His bat has 25+ HR potential despite his small stature (if you just look at his muscular build, it’s immediately obvious that he’s going to escape any small-body stereotype). His speed is just average with a base-stealing acumen to match, and he has some work to do to prove he can be an average defender. But at just age 20 until June and already at AA, there’s still lots of time to retain hobby relevance in a debut year. Johnson has maintained hobby relevance throughout his career because of the power he’s shown, but stick around for his potential turn as a complete hitter, coming in the next few years. 

Sal Stewart is about to hit the upper minors for the first time after putting up solid numbers at High-A at age 20 last year despite being hampered by a wrist issue throughout. He’s just…solid, not spectacular, though. He doesn’t have a true carrying tool, but if he can continue to show himself as being average or better on the offensive side that would help his case. The reason he needs to be at least average is because he’s a negative defender at both 3B and 2B despite a strong arm, and a below average runner as well. Still, it’s stomach-able if he can continue to run his BB% & K% within 3% of each other while continuing to improve his power output. He’s really good at choosing which pitches to attack. Despite having a high BB%, he’s an aggressive attacker at the plate and finds hard contact with consistency. The BB% comes from being able to foul off pitch after pitch until he inevitably takes the ball – it’s hard to get anything past him outside the zone. So, you can see why a pesky hitter like this is just so valuable despite his defensive deficiencies. The Reds are sure to take their time with him to see if he can find a true defensive home. It’ll be a few years before he hits the majors, but when he does there should be moderate hobby interest (as there currently is).

I’ve never been a fan of the hyper-aggressive profile, and Mikey Romero is certainly that. He swung at over three quarters of pitches he saw in High-A (average is 65.6% for the level). The history of this profile being successful is rooted in a tool being a plus asset – think Luis Arraez’s hit or Salvador Perez’s power. Romero has nothing close to that. In fact, it’s hard to peg him as having any tool that even has above average projection. If everything he does gets to at least fringe-average, which it should, he’ll have a role in the majors one day though. And as he only just turned 21, there’s room for him to develop a better approach at the plate too. That could be what unlocks his path to being a big-league regular as a utilityman. Though Romero was a first-rounder, it was always just as a buy-down for what turned into Roman Anthony. So he’s not really a 1st-Round talent, never has been in the hobby, and now we can say with near certainty he never will be. But it’s still a nice get for the Red Sox to hit on two prep bats that should contribute to their big-league roster.

If Henry Bolte improves his contact rate by 7-10%, he’d be a phenomenal prospect. That’s been his issue his whole career though – being under 70% zone contact, as he was in his 54 games of AA, will not cut it for him (or anyone). Bolte has plus raw power, but as you might expect, it’s never played anything near that with so much swing-and-miss in his game. He’s also on the aggressive side – so I wonder if he tones that down and with his chase being an acceptable average rate, he gets to a below average hit tool? That’s all he needs to make it to the majors, where he’d more than likely be given a shot to be a regular. See, Bolte is also a double plus runner. It allows him to steal loads of bases (though he’s raw with his base-stealing ability). It’s more useful on defense, where coupled with his above average arm he’s a perfect fit as the modern athletic-RF prototype. At 21 and already at AA, it’s undeniable that the Athletics value him as a future piece of some kind. I’m in on his profile for the hobby – I’ve actually always been in on him – but there’s still a substantial risk that he won't make it because of that hit tool.

Although Cutter Coffey put up good power numbers in High-A last year, it’s not a tool that will carry him to the majors. It’s really easy to see that he hunts for it. It’s not an above-average projection and it costs him a lot in terms of his hit tool. He ran an abysmally low .261 BABIP, indicating his quality of contact is generally really bad, and frustrating because he has above average speed. It’s a profile that more advanced pitching will absolutely expose. However, he doesn’t turn 21 until May – there’s still time to make significant improvements to his hit tool. There’s even a foundation of being able to make a good deal of contact. He just has to change his approach and let the power come when it may. Then I can see him profiling as a utility bat or better. But to me, we haven’t seen the type of player he’ll need to be to reach the majors to date. Long way to go, and not a high hobby ceiling for certain.

Traded to the Giants as a PTBNL in the Alex Cobb trade, Nate Furman has above-average hit and speed tools, but he hasn’t played since late June last year due to a shoulder injury and is already on the 60-day IL this year. For the purpose of this write-up I’m assuming it’s the same injury, and that it’s a significant one. Although he’ll miss a good chunk of time, I don’t think this impacts any path he has to majors too much – he doesn’t have much power at all, he’s a 2B long-term so arm strength is not paramount, and he’s only played in a bakers’ dozen of games at AA. We would’ve been looking at a late 2026 debut regardless, and I don’t think his injury changes that. You can probably guess from what I’ve said above though, that he has his work cut out for him to be a big-league regular. Even now in a stronger Giants’ hobby market, there’s too many reasons to just not tune into his ascent moving forward.

Yet another somewhat recently acquired Marlins bat, there’s a bit of a path to the majors for Andrew Pintar. However, he has not proven his power at all AA yet, so it’ll be a minute. His path to the majors isn’t one that requires him to project as a 15+ HR bat because he has plus speed and has shown a good defensive acumen in CF. But a sub-.070 ISO isn’t going to cut it either. His hit tool isn’t nearly strong enough to stomach that. In fact, nothing except his speed is guaranteed to be even a fringe-average tool. That puts him on a path to be a 4th/5th OF, and as a Marlin that's firmly off the hobby radar.

The Brewers don’t often whiff in the draft, but Eric Brown Jr, to date, is a big miss considering his 1st Round status. Now, he is a quality defender at SS, and at 2B would easily be above average. He also has great baserunning acumen that’s allowed him to steal 78 bases since turning pro. But at the plate, he’s been really bad. The main issue is that his projection of average power looks more like a 35 at present. He’s just hitting the ball with so little impact – there’s clearly a timing issue that causes him to hit so many weak fly balls. Only if there was a clear reaso…oh wait...there is. For a long time he had a ridiculous setup at the plate. We don’t need to detail it because it’s been abandoned, but remnants remain that make his swing look very stiff. His setup is almost too simple now – there’s no load in his hands. Brown is going to have to develop some fluidity in his swing, or else he’s never going to move on from Biloxi. If he makes positive strides there is some utility appeal, but he’s fallen off the spectrum for hobby-significance.

David McCabe’s 2024 season looks very, very ugly, but he was restricted to 117 PA’s of DH duty due to undergoing Tommy John surgery before the season. He has plenty of power and on-base skill even though he has a bad body that’s bound to end up at 1B. His swing is pretty stiff, and I do wonder if there's enough of a hit tool there though. It’s fine to be out on him for the hobby, but let’s pump the brakes on dismissing him completely. That injury recovery clearly threw him out of rhythm. He played a little in the AFL, but he still wasn’t back to his former self. Here’s to a recovery in 2025.

Sterlin Thompson knows his path to the majors is through his bat, because as a LF-only profile with little speed there’s not a wide path for him. He changed his approach to a more aggressive one in 2024, and while it helped his BABIP, his overall offensive numbers ticked down. And by ticked down, I mean to a state where I’m not sure he projects as a call-up candidate even in 2026. If he continues as he has I can see the Rockies exposing him to the Rule V draft this winter and him sticking in the organization. It’s quite a fall for a player that was drafted 31st overall. There’s still a possibility he becomes a 4th/5th OF-type, but even with that there’s no hobby upside.

Well, it’s not great news for Elijah Green. He led all the minors in strikeouts in 2024, and only Austin Hendrick kept him from leading all of full-season ball in SwStr%. There’s just no hit tool at all with Green. It’s not aggression anymore – he swings at an average rate overall. He just can’t make contact frequently enough. It was an abysmally low 62.5% zone contact rate. When he does make contact it’s really nice quality – dude ran a .371 BABIP last year and hit 13 HR. His raw power is definitely a double-plus asset as advertised. But, uh, do you know how to get it to being usable in-game? I don’t. And I don’t think he ever will. He does have good speed, a strong arm, and is a positive defender, so as he moves to High-A he’ll still provide value. 

Though he posted a 148 wRC+ in Low-A, that’s not where Clark Elliott wanted to be in 2024. As a 23 year-old, he backed into that level after struggling in 2023 at High-A. The other reason he was deployed there is that he doesn’t provide much value defensively – it’s mostly poor arm strength. And though his speed is fine for the OF, it hasn’t played as anything close to the above-average tool on the basepaths that it was supposed to be when he was drafted. So, the A’s simply have no reason to deploy him as anything other than an organizational filler. But he is providing offensive value – it’s just not loud. The lowering of his hands did wonders for his quality of contact. Anecdotally that will cost him some power, but we don’t know if that will be the case because he just out-physicaled the level. Elliott is the type of player who would be a star in Indy ball, but he’s got one more year to get loud with the affiliate. Hopefully it’s at a more challenging level.

He was only a dart throw at draft time to begin with, so maybe we shouldn’t be surprised that Brenner Cox hasn’t done a lot to date. However, I’d like to throw a glimmer of positivity here. Before he went out to an undisclosed injury in June, he posted a .166 ISO, which included 5 HR (it was worse when he returned). In addition, his season line of a 15.8 BB% brought his OBP to a very usable .352. There’s definitely still too much swing-and-miss in his game – no doubt about that. But at 6’3” with plenty of room to add strength to his frame, there’s hope that he can cut that down to a decent number and in turn, get to even more power. He’s still a longshot, but there’s no need to sell now if you’re still holding.

Lamar King Jr was drafted as a raw, raw, raw talent with athletic bloodlines and a hope to stick behind the plate. That last part was scuttled in 2024 due to a shoulder injury, and he moved entirely to 1B (perhaps permanently – he was not progressing defensively). That’s a wholly negative development, but his offensive output has ticked up. He’s become pretty great with the quality of his contact, posting a solid .350 BABIP coupled with very few infield fly balls. There’s still quite a bit of swing-and-miss in his game though and he was only at the Complex and Low-A – a touch behind where a 20 year old with future hobby significance should be. Now being a 1B/DH, there’s a long road ahead and he’s going to have to prove himself with no offensive regression moving forward. 

The depth of the Orioles system hurt Douglas Hodo III in 2024. He was his version of ‘bored’ at High-A for the majority of the year, posting a nearly 19 BB% and stealing 42 bases in 82 games. Very nice until I tell you…that time in High-A also featured a high 20’s K% and just a .378 SLG to go with it. While yeah, the sum total of those numbers are enough to move to AA in most systems, it’s not knocking down the door for a promotion either. And while he’s an aggressive runner, his speed isn’t a plus asset and he’s not really viable in CF. He’s a little better than organizational filler, but it’s also tough to see him as having more than 5th OF projection. Clearly not a hobby name to consider.

Robert Moore is a diminutive athlete without much power or a special hit tool – already we’re kinda done with him in hobby terms, right? He has good speed but his aggression on the basepaths outstrips his acumen (just a 67% SB career success rate). His best attribute at the plate is his ability to make contact – but too often it’s poor quality. For a guy with his speed and lack of pop, not enough balls are on the ground. He ran just a .273 BABIP at AA last year. The Phillies split his time between 2B and SS. While he can stick at SS, his size and arm strength is more befitting a 2B-only type. Sure, maybe he can fill in across the infield if it comes to it, but nobody’s going to want to play him anywhere but 2B. As such, he’s an end-of-the bench type with little hope to be more than that. 

Cade Doughty was drafted 78th overall for an average-across-the-board skillset with some infield utility appeal. There were some contact issues, but he essentially played to that potential in 2023. However, last year was undoubtedly a negative one. He started the year with a shoulder injury and didn’t finish his rehab until late June, where he was deployed to a new level for him – AA. He was not up to that task. It’s a common tale – aggressive hitter struggles mightily with quality of contact against more advanced competition. I’m personally not willing to forgive the injury/limited sample here. Just like there is organic progression in some players, there is organic regression in others. Unless he completely changes who he is at the plate, I don’t see a path to the majors for Doughty.

There was a glimmer of performance with Ryan Cermak in 2023 (.452 SLG), but both that year and his 2024 season were significantly affected by injury. So, I’ll be generous and write up the former CB-B pick and not make him a quick hit. He’s not a SS anymore, but he’s a positive outfield defender who’s quick enough for CF and the arm strength for RF. He’s not an aggressive baserunner (injuries may be a part of that), but having that raw speed will always make him a threat at least. I don’t know if we should make much of what he’s done at the plate. Yes, the performance was poor, and yes, he hasn’t seen AA and turns 24 in June. But he’s also only played 102 games total, with plenty of interruptions sprinkled between. He’s not a name for the hobby at all, but just keep in mind he also hasn’t had a chance to build any momentum.

Hitter Quick Hits: The Angels drafted Sonny DiChiara hoping to catch lightning in a bottle as a power-only asset that would be quick to the majors. Now that the prospect of that has fizzled, he’s an organizational filler that has no defensive value, providing some power but not enough hit to stick in the upper minors...I wanted to give Christopher Paciolla a bit of a pass because he was a prep in the 2022 Draft, but he’s never had speed, ticked down the defensive spectrum to 3B-only, and not shown the type of hit tool that will get him close to the majors…It’s the same story for Tucker Toman, who regressed at Low-A, spent a month on the Development List, then came back and was worse…Jordan Sprinkle and Justin Boyd each posted a sub-.300 SLG at High-A at age 23. Regardless of whether they advance further, they’re a hobby no-go at this juncture...Silas Ardoin is a quintessential defense-first backup catcher archetype – but that’s his ceiling. He might see the majors, but he cannot really hit at all…Logan Tanner has slipped behind the backup catcher archetype and doesn’t look like he’ll advance much farther as a pro…Tres Gonzalez rode a great Junior season at Georgia Tech to being taken in the 5th Round, but his value at present is tied almost entirely to outfield defense…D’Andre Smith and Jared McKenzie were hurt for a chunk of 2024, but they’ve never been a strong players as pros and didn’t do anything to change that – there’s not a single tool in their bags with potential to be above 45…I don’t know if there are better days ahead for Anthony Hall. Everything he’s done has been negatively impacted by injury, but now 24 and likely returning to High-A. Proving that he has the power that had him as a 4th Rounder hasn’t yet happened…Sean McLain ran a sub-70% zone contact rate at High-A, and without significant power to help he’s a non-prospect for the hobby…Nick Biddison is a bit position-less and doesn’t have enough bat (112 wRC+) to make up for it. As he’ll be 25 in July and hasn’t touched AA, I don’t know how much value he brings to the Dodgers’ deep system…

40-Man Contenders – Pitchers

93 innings, 127 K, .176 average against. Some pretty fantastic numbers, but that accounts for everything Cooper Hjerpe has done in two years due to a pair of elbow injuries. As he’s a low arm slot lefty with a ton of deception and that track record there’s quite a bit of relief risk. I think it’s justified that the hobby is a bit cooler on him. (He had rare base and limited color autographs, but it’s only been about 10 sales this year on eBay). He doesn’t have the same loud stuff as Jacob Misiorowski as he only throws in the low 90’s, but his change and slider are just as tricky to hit. With his fastball, it really is three pitches that dance between above average and plus. He’s just gotta stay healthy, and the Cardinals will be sure to use him as soon as this year. He definitely will be a high-K asset. The only question is whether he’ll ever build enough innings to be significant for the hobby.

On to the next level. JR Ritchie showed he’s definitely ready for High-A after recovering from Tommy John surgery. He only threw 43 innings after completing his rehab, but in doing so re-established that he’s a pitcher with considerable ceiling. A CB-A pick at 35th overall, this is really what was expected. His fastball isn’t great at this point, but he makes up for it with a slider with obvious plus projection and a change that could end up in the same. There’s a long way to go (and I’m intentionally not calling out stats because of that), but he’s trending in the right way to end up as at least a mid-rotation starter. As a prospect in the strong Atlanta market, it’s easy to see him picking up much more hobby interest in the coming year as he works into a full season of starts. (He’s up here because of his loftier prospect status, not because he’s a 40-man contender.)

A 6’0” lefty bulldog, it was always going to be important for Parker Messick to prove his durability to be a starter. Through two years, mission accomplished. Except for one pitch in his arsenal he doesn’t have great stuff, but he gets by on challenging hitters time and time again. That works for him because his changeup is just so devastating. It almost looks like a righty 12-6 curve coming from a low-arm slot lefty. It demands respect and lets all of his other offerings play up accordingly. Messick definitely has the floor of being a high-leverage lefty reliever, but he’s proven that he deserves more than that, and I have faith that it will be in a high-K capacity. As long as he’s throwing enough strikes (and he has been) I think he’ll be an option for the Guardians late this year.

Robby Snelling has been a buzzy name off and on throughout his minor league tenure, mostly because of his excellent 2023 season. However…what have you done for me lately? Lately, he’s shown that he’s just an advanced-for-his-age starter (he’s 21 this season) whose ceiling doesn’t look all that high and was a bit outmatched in AA. At the 2024 trade deadline he was traded to the Marlins, who are excellent at developing pitchers. I loved it for him. He was much improved after – still not fantastic – but he missed more bats and gave up far less hits. He even got a small taste of AAA at the end of the year. With Snelling it’s always going to be about being smart with the way he attacks hitters – he’s a bulldog out there, but lacks elite stuff. There is mid-rotation upside, and he’s close enough that if he’s performing well, a call-up could come any time in the 2nd half of this year. It’s a bad team context, so temper hobby expectations regardless.

The A’s look to have a nice get in Mason Barnett, acquired in the Lucas Erceg trade. It likely won’t happen until post-All-Star if all goes well, but he could be a rotation piece this year. He was in AA all year in 2024 and got better as the year wore on – as an Athletic he popped a 31 K% and an average against of just .211. Unlike some others in this set he has multiple above average pitches to go with it, and they’re his primary weapons in his fastball and slider. As long as his command is trending toward average, he’ll be a good performer and there's no reason to think it won’t continue in the majors. Still, mid-rotation ceiling type on the A’s isn’t something that the hobby will treat all that well.

It’s best to not treat Hunter Barco as a 2022 draftee. He had just had TJ when he was drafted, and thus brought along very slowly in 2023, only throwing 19 innings. He was a full go to begin 2024 and was outstanding – he was the dominant force you’d like to see as a 23 year old at High-A. It was a 30 K% with an average allowed right around .200. He was promoted to AA after 16 appearances but shortly afterwards went out with a shin injury and missed the rest of the year. His mix has always featured a fastball-slider combination, the star of which is the sweepy slider that gets a ton of whiff. More recently he’s added a splitter to the repertoire which could equal the slider with a little more refinement. His command is back to its average self now, and there’s nothing holding him back from knocking at the door by the end of the year. Even if he slots in as closer to a #4, there will always be some hobby upside because he’ll miss plenty of bats. Just keep in mind that we’re looking at an age 25 debut – if you’re OK with that, I think he’s very much worthwhile.

Don’t sleep on Steven Zobac. There’s still a narrow path to being a mid-rotation arm, and more of a certainty that he slots in as a solid SP 4/5. In the second half of 2024 in AA he had an incredible stretch that speaks to his ceiling. It was a 7-outing snapshot where he threw 37 innings with a 37 K%, 5 BB%, and gave up just 18 hits. Spurts like this give hope that he still has hobby relevance in the long term. In the short term, he’s one of many, many Rays prospect arms in a deep system. He’s rightfully not regarded in all prospect circles, but if he’s consistent with his plus command and average offerings, he’ll start to make some noise.

Troy Melton has a fastball I saw him throwing at 98 with significant armside run in the sixth inning of a game. That alone makes him worthy of running out there as a starter for the foreseeable future. It’s a pitch that will definitely get him to the majors in time, barring injury. He’s still learning how to best work with the short-arm delivery he began to adapt in his Junior year, so the development and consistency of his secondaries is well behind his fastball. Don’t read too much into the below-average results he had in AA – there’s a lot of room to grow and within that, high-K upside. He’s a sleeper, and closer to a dart throw than we like in our 24 year-olds, but don’t count him out hobby-wise just yet.

If Carson Palmquist was nearly as impressive in AAA as he was in AA, the Rockies might be taking a harder look at him this spring. But all of his moxy and peripheral luck regressed hard to the mean and beyond in Albuquerque. He’s a lefty with a funky low arm slot with quick whipping action that hides his arm really well. His low 90’s fastball plays up because of that, but his sweepy slider really shines. It’s a devastating pitch against lefties. He also alters that slider’s shape into a curve sometimes, and his change is well below average but a completely different movement profile. His command overall isn’t great, and was really bad in AAA. There is high-K upside, but when his command is off his stuff isn’t good enough to retain high whiff rates. All of this combined really puts him in the back-end starter bucket, with room to beat that projection, but also a relief risk if he doesn’t improve since he’s so strong against lefties. As long as a guy like this is in the Rockies system, he’s firmly off the hobby radar.

It’s very clear what Brandon Birdsell is. He’s a backend starter with a high floor and a low ceiling. He has four-ish pitches, but only two that are MLB-quality. His fastball has average velocity but his funky short-arm delivery and great ride let it play up enough to limit hard contact. His slider is a classic offering that he commands extremely well low and away to righties. He also has a curve that is probably too close in depth and velocity to his slider, and a change he used against lefties has mostly been scrapped. There’s a big difference in the Whiff% he has against lefties – it’s why he was throwing the change to begin with – something worth noting as he competes in AAA to begin 2025 (after he recovers from his lat injury). The Cubs are a good card market, but I’m not sure he’ll ever gain much hobby relevance.

The stress reaction in Trystan Vrieling’s elbow is clearly fully healed. He deserves a ton of credit for going straight to AA and throwing 147 innings in 2024, his pro debut season. In fact, his bottom line is inflated by a few blowup outings. The last of those blowups was at the end of June, so if we take the 65 innings after it was just a .210 average against. I need to stop the positive there, because in reality he is just a backend SP. His K% in that span was just 20, and despite low walk totals his command isn’t great. His fastball is into the mid-90’s, and he pairs it well with his change, but neither have above-average potential. His best pitch is a curve that has some solid slurvy action. All of this together really just makes him a pitcher who doesn’t give up a lot of hard contact. It’s useful in a real-life context, but there’s not really a wide path to sustained dominance of any sort. I think he’ll see the majors as a starter, maybe as soon as this year, but being a Yankee is the only thing that offers hobby significance.

Blake Burkhalter is generally viewed as a reliever long-term because he’s undersized, and was so dominant in that role in his Junior year. But in his return from Tommy John in June, he was deployed as a starter at High-A and stuck in that role all season, increasing his pitch count as the season wore on. He totaled 72 innings! He showed that he’s a really savvy pitcher who knows how to get hitters out – he didn’t miss a ton of bats and gave up quite a few hits. But he was effective because he reworked his mix with pitches he can command really well – that might be his best attribute now. I do wonder how effective he can be with this new approach at higher levels, and at age-24, that’s surely where he’s headed for 2025. He’s an interesting and unexpected name to keep tabs on for the hobby.

The phrase “converted to a relief role” is never a welcome phrase for hobbyists, but it should really be for Peyton Pallette, as he found success there in the second half of 2024 and now has solid projection to the majors, maybe even ultimately in a high-leverage situation. He was utterly dominant after moving to a multi-inning relief role – he held hitters to an average under .140 with a nice K% to boot. His curve and change have always been quality offerings, and generally get above average grades. But these shorter spurts just let his fastball play up to what looks like (also) above-average potential. He has a very slight frame and is only 6’1” – maybe we should have expected this? If the type of dominance he showed continues, we could see Pallette in the South Side by midsummer.

Other Pitchers

One thing to keep in mind with Michael Kennedy is that he’s still very young. He’ll be just 20 years old all season in 2025, so it’s absolutely fine that he’s only barely touched High-A. Traded to the Guardians this offseason, I wonder how much untapped potential he can unlock in their pitching lab. He was already pretty good in Low-A with Pittsburgh – in over half his starts he went 5 innings while surrendering 2 runs or less. He also sported a solid 27 K%. His command projects as a plus asset, with a change and slider that could end up the same. The Guardians will mess with his fastball to make sure he gets the most out of it, and he’ll need that as he only works in the low 90’s. There’s a lot of proving himself left and a wide range of outcomes, but a mid-rotation, high-K arm is at the top of those. 

There’s a pretty wide path to the majors already for Jacob Miller, who reached AA at age 20. However, he’s a finesse arm and lacks a pitch that projects as plus. That hurts him quite a bit for the hobby. He put together a fully healthy season in 2024 where he showed off his excellent feel for spin with his sinker and kitchen sink of offspeed pitches. It’s a small sample but once he got to AA he limited hitters to a .279 SLG. That’s a fantastic number if he can build off that, and could have him in the mix for a call-up right around the time he turns 22 in August. Still, pitchers are only viable to the hobby if there’s high-K upside. His career 20 K% is a far cry from that.

Dylan Lesko is now 18 months clear of his return from Tommy John surgery, but he simply still cannot throw strikes. He had over 8 BB/9 at High-A in 2024, a dubious league-leading statistic for pitchers at the level with over 80 innings. His stuff is still great though, anchored by a change that’s a double-plus pitch. With a fastball that has an excellent movement profile and a MLB-quality curve to boot, there’s now a prevailing thought that he’s best suited as a high-leverage reliever (hasn't happened yet!) Currently though, his control is too poor to even move past High-A. It’s still OK – he’s only in his age-21 season after all. We just need to see improvement this year!

Karson Milbrandt doesn’t turn 21 until after Opening Day and already has two 90+ inning seasons under his belt, the latest at High-A. His 2024 season started well, pitching to a 2.57 ERA while striking out better than a batter per inning over his first 9 starts. However, the command issues that have been his big bugaboo haunted him from June forward. It affected everything, and probably holds him at High-A to begin 2025. I like his slider/curve combo quite a bit. They look similar coming out of his hand, but the curve loops down significantly more while the slider is the real breadwinner with some high-80’s vertical bite. His fastball, at it’s best, offers some nice armside run, and along with a (currently) fringy change it’s easy to see how he could develop into a mid-rotation piece. There’s just quite a ways to go, with command improvements still being at the fore.

Tyler Schweitzer is the kind of crafty lefty that will dazzle you with smoke and mirrors, then turn around and confound you with mirrors and smoke. He doesn’t have a single pitch that projects as above average, but also knows how to use each of them with expert precision. There’s not a big margin of error to work with here but he’s shown he can do it at the upper levels of the minors, with only AAA remaining as a challenge. Having thrown over 100 innings each of his two professional years, I think it’s fair to throw durability concerns raised by his slender frame to the wayside. He is just a back-end rotation arm but doesn’t feel close to the majors.

He still has youth going for him as he’s only heading into his age-20 season, but Walter Ford’s fastball velocity is an issue. He only works around 90 MPH. While it’s commanded well and he has a few pitches in his bag that have plus potential (especially his slider), there’s just not enough development to prevent him getting hit around. It was a .301 average against across the Complex and Low-A. As he’s 6’3” and rail thin, I wonder if improving his lower body strength will help his velocity issue. I think it’s fair to think of Ford as a significant developmental project, which wasn’t necessarily the case when he was drafted in the 2nd Round. An unfortunate down-trend, but there’s still time to turn it around.

The last thing Michael Knorr did was miss the last two months of the MiLB season with a non-specific shoulder injury. So keep that in mind, as he may still be injured. He shows a good feel for pitching, and in doing so gets more than his fair share of K considering he doesn’t have great stuff or command. That puts him down the SP-spectrum quite a bit, but not off it. If we ignore his last few appearances (which may have been affected by injury), there’s a solid high-20’s K% and an average against near .200. Assuming health, there’s still an arm to garner fringy hobby interest here.

Trevor Martin certainly looks the part of a workhorse at 6’5” 250 lbs, and has a mid-90’s fastball to go with it. However, too often his location is off and he doesn’t have great deception in his delivery. He does have a semblance of control – his walk totals are low. He just gets blown up when he misses his spots because his fastball can get pretty flat down in the zone, and unfortunately that remains his best pitch. He does have a slider that has above average potential and a curve and change to use situationally, but again, it’s all about command of those pitches. He’s had games where everything is on and he’s a whiff machine – his career high is 14 K's! Everything came to an ugly head after his promotion to AA though, and it’s fair to wonder if he can pitch with enough consistency to reach the majors in a meaningful-for-the-hobby timeframe. He’s 24 this year, and not exactly knocking on the door.

There’s nothing to get excited about hobby-wise with Dylan Ray. His ceiling was never better than mid-rotation because he lacks a true out pitch, but his stuff is a tick above average overall. However, he’s performed worse than that because his command has not been to expectations and is currently showing as below-average. Still, with 70 AA innings under his belt already, just modest improvement would have him filling in as an occasional starter at the back end of the DBacks rotation by mid-2026.

Although he’s 6’9”, Tyler Stuart doesn’t bring a big-velocity profile to the table. Instead, his fastball, a sinker, is the pitch that most frequently gets him into trouble. It doesn’t have great movement and only sits around 93, so he has to rely on command for it to work well. He…does not…have great command. However, he does have a plus slider that, paired with a change, should get him to the majors as a backend starter. Like several others in this set there is high-K upside when he’s on but too often he’s just not. Finding some form of consistency is the next hurdle, and I think he needs it to have a regular rotation spot in the majors.

Brycen Mautz has a plus slider but nothing near MLB-quality to go with it. He is a lefty though, so there’s a chance the low-90’s fastball he pairs with it is enough to continue to get hitters out as he continues. His command improvements from his Junior year at San Diego have proven to be a bit of a mirage, and that’s a huge issue. Below average command with this profile will very likely not get it done in the high minors. Even in High-A he got hit hard too often. He’ll be 24 in July and it’s fair to question whether or not he’s earned a trip to AA – but we shall see. I’m not at all interested in him hobby-wise.

Two more soft-tossing lefties, Trey Dombrowski and Pete Hansen typically work around 90 MPH with their fastballs. They have secondaries that have flashed as above average, and have shown an ability to get some swing-and-miss because they’re usually good at locating. But when Dombrowski missed locations, man did the ball go a long way. Dombrowski surrendered 21 HR and a .512 SLG in just 97 innings in 2024. Hanson had better luck keeping the ball in the park and was altogether more successful in performance, but he’ll be 25 July and unlike Dombrowski, hasn’t seen AA. They’re both going to have to level up their command even more to make it as back-end starters.

Henry Williams was held at Low-A in 2024 because it was his first fully healthy season, and prior to 2024 he lacked a pitch that plays as above average. However, significant improvements to his command now allow his curve to be that out-pitch. It’s still not one with plus potential though, and his change and fastball lag further behind. Entering his age-23 season, I worry about how well he’ll fare when he moves up to High-A with such a thin repertoire.

To my personal chagrin Bryce Hubbart has not ridden his plus curve to a mid-rotation SP projection. Instead, his fastball, which has good shape but only averages 91 MPH, hasn’t been commanded well. That’s led to his being deployed as a lefty swingman for most of his pro tenure, with more relief than starts in total. If his command can tick back up I think he’ll look like a different guy, but there’s too many flags here – I’m out on him for the hobby.

Pitcher Quick Hits: The Royals may be onto something in deploying Hunter Patteson as a long reliever, as he was for his last 8 appearances of 2024. He was much better in that role, but he’ll be 25 in April and it was only High-A…When the Braves took Landon Sims from Mississippi State as a post-TJ project in 2022 at 35th overall, expectations were that he’d be slow to work into promotions, but this is molasses. He was converted to a relief role in 2024, still only reaching High-A with great stuff, but command that indicates he won’t be returning to the rotation…Zach Maxwell has always been a pure reliever and is now knocking on the door thanks to his fastball and slider – both of which are at least plus pitches – that gleaned a 36 K% last year. He’s a few years from high leverage situations though.

Injured Pitchers

Gabriel Hughes was perhaps over-drafted at 10th overall, but no pitcher wants to go to the Rockies willingly, so they have to build through the draft or trades. Not to say he didn’t have a 1st Round projection – he absolutely was a worthwhile name coming out of Gonzaga and reached AA rather quickly. However, he didn’t do anything during the regular season in 2024 because he was one of three top Rockies prospects to undergo TJ in the same week in July of 2023. He did return to the AFL in 2024 where, um, let’s say he was shaking off the rust. He’s healthy now and showing his fastball has the plus potential it always has, which are the two positives. Now the negative. He’s never been wholly effective as a pro because he tends to attack hitters too often. Prior to his injury his command was a positive attribute that allowed his breaking balls to project as average or better – they’re not special movement-wise. As it was really rough in the AFL, that command is something he’ll need to get back to prove he can be the mid-rotation piece the Rockies thought they were drafting.

Owen Murphy has shown flashes of three plus pitches with potential above-average command since being drafted as a prep in the 1st Round. It was a full-send breakout in High-A for the first six weeks of 2024, posting an amazing 39 K% and .127 average against. Then in late May he went down to an elbow injury and underwent Tommy John surgery. What a massive burst to his bubble. Still, there’s always been a bright future, and it remains so. But his development is now just arrested until 2026.

Tommy John, mononucleosis, oblique strain, lat strain, arm fatigue, torn shoulder labrum. No, that’s not a random list of injuries. That’s a list of injuries that has befallen Reggie Crawford since 2021. Dude just can’t stay healthy. The latest of those injuries, the labrum, will keep him out for most of 2025. He’s been great when healthy though, even at AAA, and he will likely make an impact in the bullpen as soon as 2026 at age 25. I think it’s justified that he’s more buzzy in the hobby than the reality of his being an older RP prospect dictates. His stuff is loud. I’m still excited to see him pitch in the majors.

Brandon Barriera was a buzzy prospect in the 2023 offseason after showing excellent stuff at Low-A Dunedin between a few injuries. It was a small sample but holding hitters to a .164 average will catch the eye of prospectors every day of the week. However, in April 2024 he suffered another injury and underwent a TJ-internal brace combo surgery that will likely keep him out for all of 2025. We can only hope he continues to show three above-average or better pitches when he returns.

Jake Bennett’s Tommy John surgery wasn’t until September of 2023, so we haven’t seen him at all yet since he went down. A 2nd Rounder, he’s always had a solid mix buoyed by a change-up that’s easily a plus pitch and causes fellow lefties nightmares. His slider and fastball are closer to average but his excellent command (before his injury at least) lets those pitches play up. He’s closer to a “crafty lefty” profile than we like for the hobby, but he should hit the high minors this year and put himself at least slightly back on the map.

The kid gloves were certainly on for Connor Prielipp in his return from July 2023 Tommy John surgery. However, he was exactly the kind of utterly dominant you want to see in a 23-YO pitching in High-A. He struck out 32 hitters in 19 innings with a .176 average against. That’ll play. He now looks to truly prove himself, for the first time as a pro, to be the asset that had him as a 2nd Round pick.

Dylan DeLucia tried to rehab his elbow in early 2023 before ultimately undergoing Tommy John surgery in June that year. As such, he didn’t even make his pro debut until late June of this past season. Similar to Prielipp, he was on a pitch count but was impressive once he made it to High-A (36 innings), maxing out at 5 innings in a start. He then went to the AFL and threw another 19 innings, which was quite underwhelming. At age 24 I have to weigh that AFL performance fairly heavily despite it being a batter’s heaven. There he showed that his command can be shoddy, and when it is, he gets hit pretty hard. Only a 6th Round pick to begin with, it’s fair to leave him off the hobby radar for now.

Nazier Mulé made a really quick recovery from his April 2023 Tommy John surgery and totaled 52 innings in 2024. But ignore them, there’s nothing to take away. His .187 average allowed looks good until you realize that it came with almost as many walks as strikeouts – hitters simply didn’t need to swing against him much. He’s still only 20 for the entire 2025 season though. He throws in the high-90’s. He has quality breaking pitches. There’s lots of time for him to put it all together, and what we’ve seen thus far is still impacted by his injury. There are likely brighter days ahead, though he still carries extreme risk.

A declining collegiate name at draft time, 3rd Rounder Nate Savino hasn’t really stopped that momentum as a pro yet. But he has a shoulder injury that cost him all of 2023 to blame for that. In his return this year at Low-A he put up a really ugly ERA, but his stuff still showed well (average-or-better fastball, slider and change). His command was just really bad. It’s fair to think this was more of just a recovery year for Savino. I want to see him put together in-game success before considering him for the hobby even a little. Also keep in mind he’s already 23, and hasn’t touched High-A.

Another of the three Rockies pitchers who underwent TJ in July 2023 is 2nd Rounder Jackson Cox. He was a prep in the draft though, so with a longer development path it’s not surprising that he hasn’t made it back quite yet. The Rockies started him right at Single-A in 2023, where he wasn’t good. He just didn’t show enough command to make his fastball/curve/change combo work effectively. We’ll certainly get to see how that mix emerges from injury this year though.

Other Injured Pitchers: William Kempner has reached AA and probably will reach the majors in time, but he’s just a RP who missed the entire 2024 season with a foot injury. He did return in the AFL though…Justin Campbell is a high ceiling arm that was once touted as a future #2 SP, but he’s faced setback after setback and hasn’t even made his pro debut yet. Healthy for now, 2025 could be the year…Cole Phillips once had an even higher upside than Campbell, but he’s now undergone two TJ surgeries, hasn’t made his pro debut, and likely won’t this year…Kenya Huggins was being given a light workload in 2023, but still went out to an elbow injury in June. He came back to a relief role for a few appearances in late 2024, and looked good, but he was also a 21-YO in Low-A…All I can find is that Jared Poland missed most of 2024 with an “arm injury”. Already 25 without having seen the high minors or great performance, we have to put him in the ignore bucket for the hobby…As planned Alex McFarlane missed the 2024 season after a September 2023 Tommy John surgery. He’s got good stuff but bad command (even pre-TJ) and likely comes back to a relief role.